Recently, Science Advances, a subsidiary of the American magazine Science, published a research article online that may change the global lithium metal supply pattern - the United States has discovered what may be the world's largest lithium deposit.
According to the article, the deposit is located in the McDermitt Crater on the border of Nevada and Oregon in the United States. Geologists have discovered clays with extremely high lithium content near the crater, which is about 28 miles long and 22 miles wide.
According to calculations based on drilling data from Lithium Americas Corp. and Jindalee Resources Ltd., the sediments in the entire crater contain approximately 20 million to 40 million tons of lithium, with the upper limit even reaching 12,000 tons.
From a horizontal comparison, the world's largest single lithium mine, currently recognized by the industry, is located in Bolivia, with reserves of approximately 23 million tons. Geologists believe that McDermitt's eruption pushed underground minerals to the surface, leaving behind lithium-rich micrite clay.
In addition, volcanic eruptions create faults and fissures that provide a pathway for lithium to rise to the crater surface. If calculated based on the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate of US$37,000 per ton in 2022, the potential reserve value of McDermit Volcano may exceed US$1 trillion.
Belgian geologist Anouk Borst told the media that these discoveries may change the price and supply security of global lithium metal, and even affect geopolitical dynamics.
In this regard, geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan said that the geology here "looks very likely" to contain large amounts of lithium resources, but he reminded that there has been no large-scale exploration in the area.
Zeihan added, "This is clearly worth exploring, and building processing infrastructure should be the first priority. No matter where we get the ore from, we should have the ability to process it to make lithium metal and batteries and so on."
Economist Tyler Cowen wrote that before this, U.S. policymakers had been nervous about potential lithium metal shortages. And if the McDermit volcano discovery is confirmed, U.S. investment in electric vehicles will no longer be fraught with concern.
Last month, BMI, a research firm owned by Fitch Solutions, predicted that there would be a supply shortage of lithium metal by 2025.
According to forecasts from S&P Global Commodity Insights, global electric vehicle sales will reach 13.8 million units in 2023 and soar to more than 30 million units by 2030. It is understood that each battery requires about 17 pounds (about 7.7 kilograms) of lithium, plus cobalt, nickel and other metals.
According to data from the World Economic Forum, global lithium production will be 540,000 tons in 2021, and by 2030, global demand will exceed 3 million tons.
Deutsche Bank executive Corinne Blanchard predicts that by 2025, lithium carbonate will be slightly in short supply, about 40,000 to 60,000 tons, but by 2030, this number will increase to 768,000 tons.