Two U.S. officials and two sources familiar with the matter said, The White House believes that the United States is close to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding with Iran, aimed at ending the current war, and establishing a framework for subsequent more detailed negotiations on the nuclear issue. The US expects Iran to respond on a number of core points within 48 hours. The two sides have not yet reached any formal agreement, but sources said this is the closest the two sides have come to a consensus since the outbreak of the war.
The core provisions of the memorandum include: Iran promises to suspend uranium enrichment activities; the United States agrees to lift sanctions on Iran and unfreeze billions of dollars of overseas Iranian assets; both sides also cancel various restrictions on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Most of the clauses in the memorandum are premised on the final comprehensive agreement being implemented, which also means that there is still the possibility of rekindling the war, or falling into a long-term stalemate in which "the hot war has ceased and substantive issues remain unresolved."
The White House believes that there are differences within the Iranian leadership and it is difficult for various factions to form a unified position. Some U.S. officials remain skeptical that a preliminary agreement can be reached.
During the previous rounds of negotiations and this round of war, US officials have repeatedly expressed optimistic expectations for reaching an agreement, but they have never been able to achieve it.
However, two U.S. officials said that Trump’s decision to suspend the newly announced military operation in the Strait of Hormuz to avoid the collapse of the fragile ceasefire was based on the progress made in this round of negotiations.
Behind-the-scenes details
This memorandum of understanding, which is only one page and contains 14 points, was negotiated simultaneously between Trump’s special envoys Witkov and Jared Kushner and multiple Iranian officials through direct negotiations and third-party mediation.
The current draft of the memorandum is drawn up: announcing the end of the regional war, and then starting a 30-day detailed negotiation. Topics include the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to navigation, restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, and the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran.
Two sources revealed that subsequent detailed negotiations may be held in Islamabad or Geneva.
A U.S. official said that during the 30-day negotiation period, Iran’s restrictions on shipping in the Strait and the U.S. maritime blockade will be gradually lifted.
The official also said that if the follow-up detailed negotiations break down, the US military can restart the blockade or resume military operations at any time.
Core Negotiation Focus
Uranium Enrichment Suspension The number of years is still the focus of the game: three sources revealed that it is tentatively set at at least 12 years, and some sources believe that it is likely to be eventually set at 15 years; Iran initially proposed a suspension of 5 years, and the United States initially requested 20 years.
Sources said that the United States requested to add a clause: if Iran violates the ban on enrichment activities, the suspension period will be automatically extended; after the suspension period expires, Iran can only enrich 3.67% low-abundance uranium.
Iran needs to promise in the memorandum that it will never develop nuclear weapons or carry out weaponization-related activities. A US official revealed that the two sides are still negotiating terms requiring Iran to promise not to activate underground nuclear facilities.
Iran also promised to accept enhanced verification mechanisms, including temporary surprise inspections by United Nations inspectors.
The United States promised in the memorandum: to lift sanctions on Iran in stages and gradually unfreeze Iran’s huge assets frozen around the world.
Key developments
Two informed sources revealed that Iran may agree to move out of its territory highly enriched uranium - this is the long-term core demand of the United States, which Iran has firmly rejected before.
It is reported that one of the options currently being discussed is to transport this batch of nuclear materials to the United States.
Official statement
U.S. Department of State “We don’t have to push for a full text of the agreement in one day,” Secretary Marco Rubio said on Tuesday.
He added: “This is extremely important. Complexity and technicality. We need a diplomatic solution that clearly defines the scope of issues Iran is willing to negotiate and the extent to which it is willing to make concessions in advance, so that negotiations can be meaningful. Rubio also bluntly said that some senior leaders in Iran have "lost their minds" and said that it is impossible to determine whether the other party will eventually sign the agreement.