TSMC may delay its 2nm semiconductor manufacturing node to 2026. If rumors about TSMC delaying its 2-nanometer production plan are true, the impact will be felt throughout the semiconductor industry. TSMC's hesitancy to advance technology could be caused by a number of factors, including the architectural shift from FinFET to Gate-All-Around (GAA) and potential challenges associated with scaling to 2nm.
TSMC plans to build a Fab20 factory in the second phase of Zhuke Baoshan, planning a total of four 12-inch wafer fabs (P1~P4). It was originally expected to enter risk trial production in the second half of 2024 and enter mass production in 2025. The latest progress is that the Zhuke Management Bureau has started public works for the second phase of the Baoshan expansion plan, such as surrounding roads, wastewater pools, etc., and has handed over the land to TSMC to start factory construction operations simultaneously.
According to the latest supply chain news, the construction plan of the Baoshan factory has begun to slow down, which may affect the original mass production plan. Industry insiders speculate that the ramp-up time may be postponed to 2026.
As for the Kaohsiung plant, it started building a 2-nanometer plant simultaneously with Hsinchu's Baoshan plant. The original machine-ordering operation was only one month later than that of the Baoshan plant. It is currently uncertain whether the slowdown in the Baoshan plant will affect the Kaohsiung plant at the same time. As for the Taichung plant, it has passed the Taichung City Government's municipal review, but the start of construction will have to wait until next year. Some media said that the Zhongke plant does not rule out directly advancing to 1.4 nanometer or even 1 nanometer production center.
The company is a major player in the field and delaying production could open up opportunities for rivals such as Samsung, whose 3-nanometer chips have already transitioned to GAA transistor architecture. The "depressed" demand report is surprising given the huge demand for advanced nodes due to the rise of artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things and other next-generation technologies.
However, it's also possible that it's too early for customers to make firm commitments to 2025 and beyond. TSMC refuted these rumors, saying that construction is on track, including 2nm trial runs in 2024, and mass production in the second half of 2025.
Still, any delays in TSMC's roadmap could serve as a catalyst for changes in market dynamics. Companies that rely heavily on TSMC's advanced nodes may need to reassess their timelines and strategies. In addition, if Samsung can seize this opportunity, it can achieve equal competition to a certain extent. However, for now, these rumors must be treated with caution until more concrete information is obtained.