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[Miao Yanliang: Four fundamental differences emerge in the historical conditions for RMB internationalization] On September 19, at the 2026 Tsinghua PBC Chief Economist Forum, Miao Yanliang, senior managing director and chief economist of CICC, pointed out that an important trigger for changes in the current international monetary order is the erosion of the trust foundation of the U.S. dollar as a global asset. He believes that compared with the past, there are four fundamental differences in the process of RMB internationalization: cracks in the international monetary system itself, structural changes in the international trade system, the international payment system is being reshaped, and the AI technology revolution is reshaping the way the economy operates. Among them, at the level of the AI technology revolution, Miao Yanliang pointed out that in the past several rounds of technological revolutions, productivity leadership was often accompanied by an increase in currency status—the United Kingdom and the United States successively became the center of the technological revolution, and the pound and the US dollar also became the central currencies. But the AI revolution is different: for the first time, it has pushed the technological revolution into "non-tradable service industries" - education, medical care, distribution, etc.
Improvements in the efficiency of these services are difficult to translate directly into increased exports or rising wages. Instead, domestic competition may drive down local costs and prices (i.e., the “reverse Balassa-Samuelson effect”). Miao Yanliang emphasized that in the past, we used to use indicators such as settlement ratio and reserve ratio to measure the internationalization of the RMB. Today, we must realize that: the international monetary system is changing, the international trade system is changing, the international payment system is changing, and AI is reshaping the way the entire economy operates. The four changes stacked together constitute different historical conditions for the internationalization of the RMB. Against this background, the international monetary system (changes) "are really different this time." What we can do is to unswervingly handle our own affairs and play a constructive role in international financial governance. (Securities Times)
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