B · Normal
[The Black Sea becomes "another Hormuz" and global food supply sounds alarm] September 21st, due to the conflict in the Middle East, global attention has been focused on the Strait of Hormuz and soaring oil prices. But the Black Sea shipping impasse is further exacerbating the economic damage, not only threatening to drive inflation further higher, but also threatening the food security of fragile countries. Bond investors said that food supply risks have not yet been fully priced by the market, and the market is currently paying more attention to the cost of energy and other commodities. The Black Sea connects Europe and Asia and is an important transportation channel for global crops to some of the world's most populous countries. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat trade, roughly the same share of global seaborne oil that passes through the Gulf Strait of Hormuz.
“The Black Sea is to the global wheat trade what the Strait of Hormuz is to the global oil trade,” said Caitlin Welsh, a food security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington. “The world has underestimated the impact of these attacks.” According to estimates from research institute SovEcon, during the July-September harvest season, Russia and Ukraine’s combined wheat exports may end up being only about half of what they were in the same period last year.
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