[The People's Bank of China releases its policy stance on the RMB exchange rate: There is no simple linear relationship between the exchange rate and the current account] October 8th, the People's Bank of China's policy stance on the RMB exchange rate. It is pointed out that there is no simple linear relationship between exchange rate and current account. Exchange rate is a price comparison relationship between currencies, which is affected by multiple factors such as economic growth, monetary policy, financial markets, geopolitics, and unexpected risk events. When analyzing changes in exchange rates, we must look not only at trade in goods, but also at trade in services; not only at current accounts, but also at financial accounts; we must pay attention not only to economic fundamentals, but also to expectations and other factors. From the perspective of trade channels, historically, trade channels have played an important role in the formation of exchange rates. After the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, financial liberalization and globalization continued to advance. The proportion of global trade volume in global foreign exchange transactions dropped from approximately 1/35 in the 1990s to 1/70 in 2025. The correlation between trade and exchange rates has gradually declined. From the perspective of financial accounts, since the beginning of this century, with the continuous accumulation of financial assets in various countries, changes in financial asset valuations and cross-border asset allocation have increased their impact on global imbalances, and the spillover effects have increased. Judging from historical experience, significant exchange rate fluctuations in emerging markets are often triggered by capital flows under the financial account. From 2014 to 2016, the Federal Reserve exited its quantitative easing monetary policy, and after 2022, the central banks of developed economies such as the United States and Europe significantly tightened monetary policies, both of which triggered capital outflows and currency depreciation in emerging markets. In the first half of 2026, South Korea's current account surplus increased significantly amid the AI ​​development boom, but the Korean won continued to depreciate, mainly affected by capital flows; during the same period, Japan's current account surplus increased, but the yen also continued to weaken. Judging from expectations, relevant countries will launch a tariff war in 2025. China once faced the highest tariff threat, which affected market expectations. Although China maintained a large current account surplus during the same period, the exchange rate was still under pressure. Recently, the repeated disputes between the United States and Iran over the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz have aggravated market uncertainty. Once there is news that the situation has worsened, it will trigger an increase in international oil prices and cause the currencies of some oil importing countries to depreciate. In practice, there is no linear relationship between the current account and the exchange rate. On the one hand, a current account surplus does not necessarily mean that the local currency exchange rate is undervalued and needs to appreciate. In recent years, many countries with current account surpluses, such as Japan, Switzerland, and Germany, have seen their currency exchange rates depreciate. Judging from China's situation, the funds flowing in from the current account surplus are used globally through foreign investment by enterprises, banks, etc., and the balance of payments remains basically balanced. The current account surplus does not necessarily promote the appreciation of the local currency. On the other hand, a current account deficit does not necessarily mean currency depreciation. The United States has had a large current account deficit for a long time, but the U.S. dollar has generally remained strong.