B · Normal
[Central Bank: Alleviating global imbalances requires joint action by deficit and surplus countries] October 8th, the People’s Bank of China’s policy stance on the RMB exchange rate. It pointed out that global economic imbalances are the result of the evolution of the industrial division of labor, inherent contradictions in the international monetary system, investment and savings gaps in various countries and other factors. They are not the unilateral responsibility of surplus or deficit countries and require a joint response from all parties.
Historically, major industrial countries have experienced current account surpluses. In the 1950s and 1960s, the United States' manufacturing added value accounted for roughly 40% of the world's total, and it was the country with the largest goods trade surplus at that time. Since the 1970s and 1980s, the international division of labor has undergone many adjustments. The current account surplus concentration has been dynamically adjusted from Japan and Germany to South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and then to China, ASEAN, etc. The proportion of manufacturing in Germany and South Korea is higher than the global average, and their current accounts have also maintained surpluses for a long time.
In recent decades, the world's major surplus countries have been constantly rotating, while the major deficit countries have remained unchanged. This is related to the inherent contradictions of the international monetary system. In an international monetary system dominated by a single sovereign currency, major reserve currency issuing countries can implement debt and fiscal expansion for a long period of time to support high consumption and low savings, thereby forming a long-term trade deficit. This will also weaken the country's financial constraints and manufacturing competitiveness to a certain extent, and increase debt and balance of payments risks.
The decline in trade competitiveness of some countries reflects their own structural difficulties. Some economies have long-term high energy costs, high manufacturing costs, lagging infrastructure development, rigid regulatory policies, insufficient investment in innovation and digitalization, and path dependence in industrial development, weakening the international competitiveness of their national industries.
All countries should promote their own structural reforms. Deficit countries should embark on fiscal consolidation and improve their savings rates and industrial competitiveness; surplus countries should promote consumption and investment growth. Some countries simply attribute complex international monetary system and economic structural problems to the RMB exchange rate, which is a shirk and avoidance of their own adjustment responsibilities. It does not help solve the problem. In fact, it is a political operation in the context of protectionism and unilateralism.
Medium- and long-term policy commitments are more conducive to stabilizing expectations. Countries should formulate medium- and long-term policy plans, make clear commitments and resolutely implement them, and avoid back-and-forth flipping. It is unrealistic to try to solve the structural problems of the global economy within one to two years, and short-term policy changes may be counterproductive. For example, a global tariff war in 2025 will trigger a "rush for imports", exacerbating imbalances and harming global economic growth.
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