B · Normal
[The yield curve of the European bond market has flattened, and the market is certain that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next month] On August 29, the European government bond yield curve flattened, lagging behind in the short-term, following the trend of U.S. Treasury bonds after the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh. After Warsh spoke in Jackson Hole, two-year Treasury bond yields in Germany and the United Kingdom rose 4 to 5 basis points, and the two-year Treasury bond yield in the United States rose as much as 9 basis points. Warsh emphasized the need for the Fed to curb rising consumer prices, alleviating bond market concerns about the central bank's credibility in handling inflation. Pricing of federal funds rate futures shows that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in September has risen to more than 50%, which is higher than about 36% before the speech. In Europe, Primoz Dolenc, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, said there are good reasons to raise interest rates next month. The swaps market currently prices a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike from the European Central Bank. German bond yields rose 2 basis points to 3.27%, German bond futures fell 9.00 to 123.84, Italian 10-year bond yields rose 2 basis points to 4.09%, the Italian-German bond yield spread narrowed 1 basis point to 82 basis points, French 10-year bond yields rose 1 basis point to 4.10%, and 10-year British bond yields rose 2 basis points to 5.05%.
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