A · Important
[TSMC: It is expected that Q4 demand will continue to be strong. The CPU demand for AI intelligent agents far exceeds the current supply capacity] October 15th, TSMC released its third quarter 2026 results on the afternoon of October 15th and held an analyst meeting to introduce performance guidance, industry demand, capital expenditures, process/capacity and other aspects. The core content is as follows:
(1) About performance guidance
① The company expects sales in the fourth quarter to be US$52.3 billion to US$54.3 billion, while the market estimates US$50.35 billion; the company expects gross profit margin in the fourth quarter to be 65-67% (66.4% in the third quarter).
② The company expects revenue in 2026 to grow by approximately 44% in U.S. dollars, compared with the previous forecast of slightly more than 40%.
③There is no upper limit to profitability, but substantial improvement will not happen overnight.
(2) Regarding the demand for artificial intelligence
① We have firm confidence in the general trend of artificial intelligence. The demand for AI continues to grow, and demand in Q4 is expected to continue to be strong.
②The CPU demand for AI agents is growing, and the demand still far exceeds the current supply capacity.
(3) Regarding capital expenditures
①Capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to be US$60 billion-64 billion.
② We will remain cautious in our business planning for 2027, and it is too early to disclose the amount of capital expenditures after this year.
(4) About process/capacity
① The demand for advanced processes is very strong, and a new 3-nanometer process wafer fab will be built in Tainan.
②We are discussing with Musk whether we can utilize TeraFab’s idle production capacity. Any factory cooperation must be led by TSMC.
③We are considering expanding U.S. production capacity outside of Arizona and are conducting site selection evaluations in Texas.
④The A14 chip will start mass production in 2028.
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