[Tariffs are still missing, investors are wary of the copper bull market] October 19th: Since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House, the market has worried that the United States will impose tariffs on copper, triggering a major change in the global inventory pattern and causing copper prices to soar. However, as Trump’s second presidential term is almost halfway through, many bulls have begun to worry that if the tariffs are not finally implemented, copper prices may plummet. Until a few weeks ago, New York copper futures were trading above the global benchmark price of the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper contract, allowing traders to make unprecedented profits by shipping copper to the United States before tariffs took effect. Copper continued to flow into the United States and inventories in other regions fell sharply, pushing LME copper prices to a record high of nearly $15,000 per ton last month. But as the U.S. midterm elections approach, investors in various markets are wondering whether the Democratic Party's strong performance will disrupt Trump's trade agenda, or instead prompt him to double down on his tariff strategy. For copper bull investors, if Trump is ultimately unwilling or unable to move forward with copper tariffs, the consequences could be dire. Analysts at Natixis warned that bets on tariffs have created a bubble in one of the world's most important markets for industrial commodities that could burst quickly if the possibility of tariffs is ruled out. Macquarie Group said copper prices could fall towards $10,000 a ton in this scenario, but could rise to $18,000 if the tariffs were simply announced later, allowing traders to ship even more copper to the United States. The current LME copper price is around US$14,430 per ton.