B · Normal
[UBS: Lowered the target price of CATL from HK$820 to HK$730. Unit profits are under pressure due to changes in product structure and tax rebates] On October 21, UBS released a research report stating that CATL’s net profit in the third quarter was 21.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, but a 6% decline from the previous quarter, which was about 10% lower than the buyer’s expectations. Net profit in the first nine months was 64.5 billion yuan, only reaching 62% to 67% of the full-year market consensus and the bank's estimate, which may lead to a downward revision of the market's full-year consensus expectations. Excluding non-recurring items, net profit in the third quarter was 18.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, but a month-on-month decrease of 10%. During the period, battery sales exceeded 260GWh, of which energy storage systems (ESS) accounted for approximately 25% and electric vehicle batteries accounted for approximately 75%. The bank pointed out that the unit profit based on this calculation dropped to 82 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a record low, mainly affected by quarterly product mix fluctuations, an increase in low value-added projects, the consumption tax on lithium-ion batteries starting from September 1, and the export value-added tax rebate rate dropped from 9% to 6%. However, management remains confident in the industry's growth prospects of 20% to 30% in 2027. UBS accordingly lowered the company's net profit forecast from 2026 to 2028 by 11% to 14%, to a range of 90 billion to 131 billion yuan, and lowered the target price from HK$820 to HK$730, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Comments