A · Important
[European, American and Japanese bond markets encountered a wave of selling, precious metals and European and American stock markets were under pressure] On September 1, affected by rising energy prices, rising inflation expectations, and changes in major central bank monetary policy expectations, the world's major government bond yields generally rose. The yield on Japanese 30-year government bonds rose to over 4.18%, a record high; the yield on 30-year British government bonds rose to 5.88%, the highest since 1998; the yield on 10-year German government bonds rose to 3.339%, the highest since 2011. The U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yield rose to 5.28%, up 4 basis points on the day, approaching a recent high.
This afternoon, affected by the strength of the US dollar and changes in interest rate expectations, international precious metal prices fell simultaneously. Spot silver fell below $65 per ounce, falling 2.33% on the day, hitting a new low since August 19; spot gold fell 1.66% to $4,375.23 per ounce. At the same time, Brent crude oil futures increased by 2% to US$92.30 per barrel.
The market is re-evaluating the subsequent monetary policy paths of major central banks. The recent hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve combined with rising oil prices has significantly cooled the market's expectations for an interest rate cut in September, and has even begun to factor in the possibility of an interest rate increase. The latest market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September has risen to about 66%.
Affected by changes in interest rate expectations, risky assets have also come under pressure. As of 16:40, the UK's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.83%, the German DAX30 index fell by 0.73%, and the French CAC40 index rose by 0.14%; the Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 0.8%. This week's U.S. employment data and subsequent inflation data will become an important basis for the market to judge the Fed's policy path.
Comments