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[Mogul Morgan is optimistic that technology divisions such as Nvidia will maintain capital expenditures and predicts that it may reach US$1.6 trillion in 2027] November 9th, Morgan Stanley stated in the latest global theme research report released on November 8th that after the U.S. stock market election, market concerns about the prospects of data center construction triggered a sharp adjustment in artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks. However, the bank believes that the market has overreacted and the long-term investment logic of AI has fundamentally changed. Morgan Stanley recommends that investors adopt a transformational bargain-hunting buying strategy, focusing on large technology companies, some semiconductor and data center infrastructure companies whose valuations have fallen significantly, and software companies that benefit from the commercial application of AI.
Morgan Stanley believes that the policy changes brought about by the U.S. midterm elections will mainly affect the construction time of some data center projects, rather than the overall artificial intelligence investment demand. While the newly elected capstone may push for more stringent data center staging and construction requirements, projects already in the construction phase are not expected to be significantly affected.
Morgan Stanley estimates that about 20% of data center projects originally planned for 2028 in the United States may be postponed to 2029, involving about 5 GW of IT load capacity, equivalent to about 10% of related projects. Affected by this, new data center capacity in the United States is expected to drop by approximately 4% in 2028, and by approximately 38% globally in 2029.
Morgan Stanley emphasized that project delays do not mean investment cancellations. On the contrary, a longer construction cycle may make the growth of AI capital expenditures more sustainable and help alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand in the supply chain, improve the financing environment, and support the calculation of rental prices.
Morgan Stanley has adjusted the construction time of some data center projects. Morgan Stanley currently maintains its forecast for the overall capital expenditure of large cloud computing and technology companies, which is expected to reach approximately US$1.6 trillion and US$1.8 trillion in 2027 and 2028 respectively.
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