[The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond hinted that the direction of raising interest rates is clear but the pace needs to be cautious] On November 10th, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin hinted that strong demand and high inflation mean that interest rates still need to be raised further, but he warned that any interest rate increases need to be carried out at a cautious pace. In a speech outlining his views on the economy, Barkin said corporate profits were strong and consumers continued to spend even as the unemployment rate was at or below 4.5% for a record period. However, he warned about how long the strong performance in consumption could last, noting that businesses and households were still complaining about rising costs. This means that for policymakers, the direction of policy is clear, but the pace of action has not yet been determined. "The appropriate direction for monetary policy is relatively clear," Barkin said in a speech in South Carolina. "However, the risks to the demand outlook are still easy to imagine. It would be wise to remain cautious in making policy adjustments." Barkin called the AI ​​craze the "elephant in the room" facing policymakers. How the AI ​​boom evolves will be particularly important to the economy in the near future, he said. "If AI does not perform as expected, business investment could fall back, stock prices could follow, and consumer spending driven by asset appreciation could decline," Barkin said. "The risk could go in the other direction. AI could outperform expectations, causing spending to pull back. In either case, focus will shift to the full employment part of our dual mission." Barkin also said consumer spending should remain resilient through the end of the year, though he warned that forecast could still change. "The holiday shopping season is widely expected to be strong, but the question is how long that can last," he said.