[U.S. core CPI rose more than expected to strengthen the case for tightening, and the market’s probability of raising interest rates soared to 90%] September 11th, a key indicator of U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected last month, providing more basis for the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week to raise interest rates. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that the consumer price index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% month-on-month in August. On a year-over-year basis, the indicator rose 2.4%. Increases in energy costs pushed overall consumer prices up 0.4% from the previous month, while the year-on-year increase was 3.4%. Futures trading shows that investors believe that next week's interest rate hike is almost certain, and the probability of a second rate increase before the end of the year is also quite high. The report showed that pressure from the Iran war, tariffs and massive data center construction kept inflation barely moving toward the Fed's target last month. With some officials suggesting that the Fed's decision on September 15-16 may ultimately hinge on Friday's data, the Fed may be looking at indicators that are tilting toward raising interest rates for the first time in three years. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has been reluctant to reveal the Fed's next steps, but he said in a speech last month that if the Fed is not confident that "underlying inflation is moving clearly and rapidly enough toward our goals," we "have work to do." At the same time, the U.S. economy is facing a rebound in energy prices as conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war impact energy supplies. This week, crude oil futures topped $100 a barrel, while retail diesel prices in the country also hit new highs. Prices for services excluding energy and rent rose 0.5%, reflecting rising costs in categories such as communications, out-of-home accommodation and air tickets, the data showed. Prices of goods excluding food and energy commodities rose 0.1%, driven primarily by higher prices for new and used cars. This CPI report is the last major inflation indicator before the interest rate meeting in September. Another report released on Thursday also showed that the producer price index rose 0.4% month-on-month last month, the largest increase since May. The inflation measure the Fed looks at is the personal consumption expenditures price index, due out at the end of the month. Economists now expect headline inflation, as measured by this measure, to end the year above 3%, still well above the Fed's 2% target.