A · Important
[Goldman Sachs adjusts Fed policy expectations: from previously forecasting no change to forecasting a rate hike in September] September 12th, Goldman Sachs economists currently predict that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of the two-day interest rate meeting on September 16. The bank’s previous expectation was to keep interest rates unchanged. The team adjusted its interest rate forecast because the U.S. consumer price index data released in New York on Friday morning was higher than market expectations; after the data was released, market pricing showed that the probability of raising interest rates in September has risen to about 90%. David Merrick, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a research report on Friday: "We now expect a 25 basis point rate hike at next week's September FOMC meeting (previously expected to remain unchanged). Although this CPI report only slightly increases our forecast for August core PCE The adjustment to 0.26% has not changed our core judgment on inflation, but we believe that when the market has priced in a probability of raising interest rates in September that is close to 90%, if the Fed chooses to stay on hold, it is likely to trigger severe market fluctuations, and the FOMC will want to avoid this situation."
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