[CITIC Securities: Reshaping the shipping cycle paradigm, paying attention to express delivery peak season prices] September 12th, CITIC Securities believes that the traditional shipping cycle supply and demand analysis paradigm needs to take advantage of the situation and optimize and adjust accordingly. "Supply chain stability and security" has replaced "efficiency and cost priority" in the era of globalization as the primary core element, and pricing power has obviously shifted to the capacity controller. For container shipping, terminal congestion, blockage of key waterways, and fragmentation of trade flows have become a continuous flashpoint of influencing factors. Capacity allocation has become more flexible, high-frequency and high-density services have bound high-quality customers, and regional container shipowners with prominent long-term cost and efficiency advantages may be the first to benefit. VLCC’s quarterly profit for oil transportation is expected to maintain a sequential growth during the year. The Strait of Hormuz has got rid of the dual state. The bypass and Gulf STS continue to consume effective transportation capacity. The substitution of cargo sources and the lengthening of transportation distance are particularly obvious in August when the conflict between the United States and Iran further intensifies. The profit growth during the year is expected to blunt the traditional game of the highest freight price in the peak season. The westward shift of refined oil shipping capacity has intensified supply tensions, and attention should be paid to the recovery of domestic exports and seasonal drivers. At the same time, pay attention to the marginal changes in express delivery prices during the peak season and the opening of express delivery services.