[CICC: Sticky inflation supports interest rate hikes, be wary of hawkish signals] September 12th, CICC Research pointed out that the U.S. CPI in August rose 0.4% month-on-month (0.1% last month) and 3.4% year-on-year (3.4% last month); core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month (0.2% last month) and 2.4% year-on-year (2.5% last month), slightly higher than market expectations. The month-on-month rebound in inflation is mainly due to rising energy prices, rising telecommunications prices, and the continued inflationary pressure brought about by AI. CICC believes that this CPI report has reached the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike threshold, so it is expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the September 16 meeting. In addition, the Federal Reserve may lower the unemployment rate and raise its inflation forecast, and the dot plot may increase the interest rate path in 2027 and 2028, sending a signal that tightening will last longer. A more hawkish risk scenario is another rate hike this year or next year, which, if realized, could reprice the market for a longer rate hike cycle.