[CITIC Construction Investment: Interest rate hike expectations are fully priced, gold is expected to bottom out and rebound] On September 14th, CITIC Construction Investment Securities Research Report pointed out that the United States released CPI data for August. The overall CPI was in line with expectations, and the core CPI exceeded expectations. However, the strengthening of inflation mainly comes from one-time service disturbances, and the possibility of continued warming is low. After the data came out, the probability of an interest rate hike in September rose to 87%, and the near-end interest rate hike expectations were basically full, triggering a negative landing trade, and gold fell first and then rose. Looking to the future, the market has fully priced in expectations of near-term interest rate hikes. As long as the Federal Reserve does not release a signal of continued interest rate hikes, gold is expected to bottom out and rebound after all the negative news: an interest rate hike in September will be a sign of success; if there is no interest rate hike, the relief of short-term interest rate pressure and gold's credit hedging are expected to resonate, supporting the recovery of gold prices.