B · Normal
[Morning Morgan Strategist: U.S. high-quality stocks are expected to outperform the market in the context of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates] September 14th, Morgan Stanley strategists said that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates as scheduled this week, U.S. high-quality stocks will most likely achieve excess returns. Strategists point out that historically, high-quality blue chip stocks tend to outperform the market during the first interest rate hike phase of a tightening cycle. The research team led by Michael Wilson wrote in a research report: "It is also worth noting that cyclical stocks and momentum stocks usually perform better after the first interest rate hike." The current factor driving interest rates upward is strong economic growth, not fiscal sustainability issues or higher-than-expected inflation. The main follow-up risk is that if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked and China's consumption picks up, oil prices may suddenly surge, triggering an unexpected inflationary shock. This may "turn what currently appears to be a modest, precautionary policy adjustment into what the market sees as a longer interest rate hike cycle."
Comments