[CITIC Securities: The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25bps this year and may remain unchanged next year] On September 17, CITIC Securities research report believed that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25bps as scheduled in September and raise its growth and inflation forecasts for this year. The dot plot and Warsh's speech both released hawkish signals. The market's strong expected pressure makes raising interest rates a natural choice for the Federal Reserve. The pace and magnitude of the Fed's subsequent interest rate hikes will largely depend on oil prices, which is difficult to predict. However, given that the overall inflation rate may decline significantly year-on-year early next year, the case for continuing to raise interest rates by then should weaken. CITIC Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25bps this year and may remain unchanged next year. It is currently difficult for U.S. financial conditions to loosen meaningfully. Under the growth narrative, we should look for assets that are supported by fundamentals rather than just benefiting from liquidity.