[Huatai Securities: The necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in October has decreased, and another rate hike in December is expected to be the baseline situation] On September 17, Huatai Securities Research Report stated that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled at the September meeting, raising the benchmark interest rate to 3.75%-4.00%. All 12 voting committees support this interest rate increase. Both the dot plot and the SEP show that the Fed is generally more hawkish. Wash said that this interest rate increase is a "dose of easing" removed from monetary policy. Looking forward, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September, and December may be the real game period for the next interest rate increase. Whether the Federal Reserve will start an interest rate hike cycle still requires more data and official statements to judge. The current market pricing is that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October exceeds 50%. However, Huatai Securities believes that due to the declining fiscal pulse, the increased erosion of oil prices on household consumption, and the tightening of financial conditions, employment and inflation data may cool down in the next one to two months. The necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in October has declined, and another rate hike in December is expected to be the base case. The Fed's interest rate hike path in 2027 depends on the performance of subsequent economic data, especially whether the job market will continue to improve, thereby promoting the recovery of wage growth and the trend of inflation.