B[The coal sector fluctuated and rose, Antai Group's 2 consecutive stocks] On October 9th, the coal sector fluctuated and rose during the session, with Antai Group's 2 consecutive stocks, China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Yankuang Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, etc. following the rise. On the news, according to information released by CNBC Indonesia on October 7, due to supply problems, the price of coal has risen unstoppably. The price of thermal coal in the international market has continued to rise in the past week and has exceeded US$150 per ton. B[China’s bulk commodity price index rose 4.1% month-on-month in September] On October 5, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced today (5th) China’s bulk commodity price index. Judging from the index operation, with the arrival of the traditional peak season for production and construction, the acceleration of the implementation of major projects, and the continued improvement of manufacturing production and market demand, the commodity market sentiment level has further improved, laying a good foundation for the smooth operation of the economy in the fourth quarter. China's commodity price index in September was 137.6 points, up 4.1% month-on-month and 22.9% year-on-year. Among the 50 commodities monitored by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, 38 commodities saw price increases month-on-month in September. Among them, methanol, ethylene glycol and coke were the top increasers, with month-on-month increases of 39.5%, 24.8% and 20.4% respectively. B[Coke starts the first round of improvement, ADZE low-sulfur main coke drops cumulatively by 270 to 2350] On September 29, mainstream steel mills raised and lowered the coke purchase price today, with wet quenching coke reduced by 100 yuan/ton and dry quenched coke reduced by 110 yuan/ton, which will be implemented at 0:00 on October 1, 2026. On the supply side, with the support of policies to stabilize production and ensure supply, coal mines in main production areas are advancing the resumption of production in an orderly manner, but the overall resumption progress is still slower than market expectations. The overall market transaction today was bleak. Anze low-sulfur main coking coal dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton. Linfen Yaodu high-sulfur main coking coal’s transaction price dropped from 1,955 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton; Luliang Lishi high-sulfur main coking coal price dropped by 230 yuan/ton. The transaction price of main coking coal was 1,955 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the average transaction price of Changzhi Qinyuan low-sulfur lean coking coal was 2,309 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton, and some coal mines still failed to sell after lowering their starting prices. On the demand side, the profit recovery of downstream steel mills is currently weak. Today, the first round of increases and decreases in the coke market was launched. After the early replenishment, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement has slowed down significantly. (My Steel Net) B[Shanxi makes every effort to promote the resumption of coal mines, stabilize production and supply, and an increase of 31 million tons can be expected] On September 29, Shanxi Province held a provincial coal safety, stable production and supply promotion meeting, and proposed that under the premise of strictly adhering to the bottom line of safety, we will fully promote the resumption of coal mines, stabilize production and supply, accelerate the reversal of the decline in output, accelerate the reshaping of the coal industry ecology, and contribute to Shanxi's efforts to ensure national energy security and meet people's energy needs. Currently, the Shanxi Provincial Energy Bureau, together with the Shanxi Provincial Department of Emergency Management and the Shanxi Bureau of the National Mine Safety Supervision Bureau, organizes safety assessments for stable production and supply of coal mines. For coal mines that have passed the safety assessment, on the premise that the bottom line of safe production is strictly observed, all hidden dangers are investigated and managed, and the coal mine safety supervision and inspection department has implemented administrative penalties in accordance with the law for over-capacity production since 2026, before the end of December, the remaining months of production can be organized at no more than 1/12 of the design (approved) capacity in a single month, and preliminary estimates can increase output by 31 million tons. (China Coal News) B[Most of the main domestic futures contracts fell, with lithium carbonate and Shanghai silver falling by more than 4%] On September 28, most of the main domestic futures contracts fell, with lithium carbonate and Shanghai silver falling by more than 4%, live pigs falling by more than 3%, palladium falling by nearly 3%, and coking coal, dates, glass, and Shanghai gold falling by more than 2%. In terms of growth, the European container shipping line rose by more than 5%, methanol rose by more than 4%, fuel oil rose by more than 3%, beans rose by nearly 2%, and propylene, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), polysilicon, and asphalt rose by more than 1%. B[Governor of Shanxi Province: It is necessary to accelerate the reversal of the declining trend of coal production] On September 26, Lu Dongliang, deputy secretary of the Shanxi Provincial Party Committee and governor of Shanxi Province, chaired a promotion meeting on the province’s coal safety, stable production and supply on the 26th. He emphasized that we should better coordinate development and safety with a strong sense of responsibility, mission, and urgency. While strictly adhering to the bottom line of safety, we should fully promote the resumption of work and production, stabilize production and supply, accelerate the reversal of the downward trend in output, accelerate the reshaping of the coal industry ecology of our province, and contribute Shanxi's strength to ensuring national energy security and meeting people's energy needs. B[The coal sector rose in the afternoon and Dayou Energy approached its daily limit] On September 22, the coal sector rose in the afternoon, Dayou Energy approached its daily limit, and Yunmei Energy, Zhengzhou Coal and Electricity, Jinkong Coal Industry, and Shaanxi Black Cat followed suit. On the news, on September 22, the benchmark price of coking coal in SunSirs was 2,373.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.63% compared with the beginning of this month (2,268.75 yuan/ton). B[Chengdu’s lithium-ion battery production increased by 152.7% year-on-year from January to August] On September 22, the official WeChat account of the Chengdu Bureau of Statistics revealed that from January to August, the added value of the city’s industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year. Looking at different industries, the added value of 26 of the 37 major industries increased. Among them, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.1% year-on-year, the special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 14.5%, the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry increased by 14.1%, and the computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 12.6%. Looking at the output of major industrial products, lithium-ion batteries increased by 152.7% year-on-year, smart TVs increased by 45.5%, and industrial robots increased by 16.3%. From January to August, the production and sales rate of products of industrial enterprises above designated size was 96.0%. B[Main domestic futures contracts are up and down] On September 22, the main domestic futures contracts were up and down. Polysilicon, lithium carbonate, glass, and pure benzene rose by more than 2%, international copper rose by nearly 2%, and Shanghai copper, coking coal, and paraxylene rose by more than 1%. In terms of decline, ethylene glycol (EG) fell by more than 3%, asphalt fell by nearly 3%, and propylene fell by more than 2%. B[The three major ports were closed for 7 consecutive days during the National Day, and the bidding for coking coal from the origin fell across the board] According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed for 1 day on the Mid-Autumn Festival on September 25, and for 7 days during the National Day period from October 1 to 7, and will resume customs clearance on October 8. Recently, customs clearance at Mongolian coal ports has remained low, import supply continues to tighten, and inventory reduction is expected to be strong. On the supply side, although the market supply is expected to be loose in the near future, the overall supply of coking coal is still relatively tight. The actual increase in the short term is limited, market sentiment continues to be weak, and the online auction failure rate continues to be high. The average transaction price of Changzhi Qinyuan low-sulfur lean coking coal was 2,353 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton. (My Steel Net) B[A total of 8 coal mines in Qinyuan, Changzhi, have resumed production and the three major ports have been closed for one day on the Mid-Autumn Festival] On September 20, the three major coal ports in Mongolia were closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival. The short-term customs clearance volume is still limited, the port inventory has dropped to a low level, and the bottom support for Mongolian coal prices is still there. The quotations of port traders are temporarily stable, and actual transactions are sparse. In the future, we should continue to pay attention to the impact of customs clearance resumption and futures fluctuations on market prices. Qinyuan County, Changzhi City, today resumed production of a new coal mine with an approved production capacity of 900,000 tons. The type of coal involved is high-sulfur main coking coal, with a daily production of raw coal of approximately 0.05 million tons. The county has resumed production of 8 coal mines, with a total production capacity of 10.2 million tons. (My Steel Net) B[Most of the main domestic futures contracts fell, SC crude oil fell by more than 8%] On September 18, most of the main domestic futures contracts fell, with SC crude oil falling by more than 8%, coking coal falling by more than 6%, coke falling by nearly 5%, bottle flakes falling by nearly 4%, and paraxylene, staple fiber, PTA, and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) falling by more than 3%. In terms of gains, the European Container Line rose by nearly 3%, Shanghai Silver rose by more than 2%, Shanghai Lead and International Copper rose by nearly 2%, Apple, Shanghai Zinc, Shanghai Copper, and Shanghai Tin rose by more than 1%. A[The National Energy Administration and other departments deploy work to ensure the safety, stable production and supply of coal] September 18th. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, and the State Administration of Mine Safety Supervision jointly issued a notice to take multiple measures to speed up the stabilization of coal production and supply. The notice pointed out that all coal-producing provinces (autonomous regions) and coal enterprises must, on the premise of ensuring safety, do their best to ensure the stable production and supply of coal, continue to do a good job in monitoring and dispatching, constantly optimize production organization, actively and steadily promote the resumption of coal mine production to reach capacity, accelerate the acceptance of joint trial operation of coal mines, promote the steady recovery of coal production, and provide strong support for economic growth and energy supply. At the same time, the notice puts forward requirements for the signing and performance of medium- and long-term thermal coal contracts, the role of import supplementary adjustments, and the promotion of continued coal production capacity construction. In the next step, relevant departments will strengthen overall planning and coordination, guide coal-producing provinces (autonomous regions) and coal enterprises to implement various work arrangements, adjust and improve policies and measures, release coal production capacity reserves in a timely manner, make every effort to stabilize coal production and supply, and promote the smooth operation of the market. B[Most domestic commodity futures closed down, and pure benzene fell by the limit] On September 17, most domestic commodity futures closed down, with pure benzene falling by the limit, down 6%, crude oil fell by more than 6%, styrene fell by more than 5%, fuel oil fell by more than 4%, liquefied gas and paraxylene fell by more than 3%, apples, dates, plastics, and PTA fell by more than 2%, and coking coal, pulp, cotton, palm oil, and ethylene glycol fell by more than 1%. In terms of gains, the European Container Line rose by more than 8%, lithium carbonate rose by more than 3%, rapeseed meal rose by nearly 3%, Shanghai tin, Shanghai nickel, soybean meal, and international copper rose by more than 1%. B[The coal sector was active in the afternoon, and Yunmei Energy rose by the daily limit] On September 17, the coal sector was active in the afternoon, and Yunmei Energy rose by the daily limit. Zhengzhou Coal and Electricity, Dayou Energy, and Shaanxi Black Cat followed suit. On the news, the resumption of production of coking coal mines in Shanxi has been hindered recently. Mysteel continued to collect statistics on the production of coking coal mines this week. Since May 23, a total of 204 coal mines in Shanxi have stopped production, with a total production capacity of 275 million tons. As of September 16, a total of 75 coal mines were suspended, with a total production capacity of 72.9 million tons. B[Domestic commodity futures opened mixed, crude oil rose more than 6%] On September 15, domestic commodity futures opened mixed, crude oil rose more than 6%, coking coal and fuel oil rose more than 3%, asphalt, paraxylene, and bottle flakes rose more than 2%. Shanghai tin fell by more than 2%, and platinum, glass, Shanghai silver, soda ash, and lithium carbonate fell by more than 1%. B[The bidding price of coking coal from the origin continues to loosen, and 1/3 of one million tons of Mongolian coking coal has been rejected] On September 14th, the imported Mongolian coking coal market was operating weakly. The futures market is weak and volatile, and the market sentiment is relatively weak. The recent customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port has continued to be lower than normal levels, significantly lower than the previous peak, and regional spot circulation continues to be tight. The short-term Mongolian coal market is expected to continue the characteristics of "strong reality, weak expectations". Today, 1/3 of Mongolia's online electronic bidding of coking raw coal failed. The overall price of coking coal in the domestic market fluctuated at a high level, and market sentiment gradually weakened. On the supply side, regional safety supervision has not been significantly relaxed, the pace of production capacity release is slow, and market circulation resources are still tight. The quotations of some coal types remain high, but the room for transaction negotiation has expanded. On the demand side, after multiple rounds of coke price increases, the losses of coke companies have been restored, the operating rate has remained relatively high, and short-term rigid demand is still there. (My Steel Net) B[Most domestic commodity futures ended lower Crude oil surged more than 11%] On September 14, most domestic commodity futures closed down, with glass and soda ash falling by more than 5%, caustic soda, Shanghai tin, and BR rubber falling by more than 3%, PVC, pure benzene, red dates, rapeseed meal, Shanghai lead, and styrene falling by more than 2%, and coke, Shanghai zinc, rubber, alumina, Shanghai nickel, coking coal, iron ore, ethylene glycol, lithium carbonate, palm oil, and industrial silicon falling by more than 1%. In terms of gains, crude oil rose by more than 11%, and asphalt, fuel oil, and European container shipping rose by more than 2%. B[Unsuccessful rate of coking coal auctions has increased significantly] September 11th. This week (September 4-September 10), the number of unsuccessful online coking coal auctions has increased significantly, and the market’s acceptance of high-priced resources has weakened. Market sentiment has cooled significantly this week, spot transactions have become more cautious, pithead inventories have increased steadily, and the pace of rising coal prices has also slowed down significantly. The market is shifting from unilateral bullishness to high-level gaming. According to Mysteel statistics, there were 94 coking coal auctions this week, with a total listing volume of 955,500 tons and a total transaction volume of 544,500 tons. The number of listings was basically the same, but the transaction volume shrank significantly, the unsold rate rose to 43%, and the proportion of unsold auctions increased by 39.4 percentage points in a single week.
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