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All A·Important B·Normal #U.S. economy ✕
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[U.S. Treasury futures are experiencing large-scale deleveraging by asset managers and signs of forced selling are emerging] On October 10, asset managers were selling long-dated U.S. Treasury bond futures contracts, indicating that forced selling was occurring as spot bond yields hovered near multi-year highs. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that in the two weeks ended October 6, the net long position of ultra-long-term Treasury futures held by asset managers decreased by approximately $27 million on a per basis point risk basis. This is equivalent to about $38 billion in current benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes. During the same period, futures contract prices fell sharply as the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to a 24-year high of 5.68%. This is part of a months-long sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, driven by concerns about the inflationary impact of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iraq, worsening global government fiscal conditions, and a boom in artificial intelligence (AI) that could further stimulate the U.S. economy that the Federal Reserve is trying to curb.
#AI#Futures Market Intelligence#US Macro Express#Federal Reserve News#U.S. economy10-10 06:42
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On October 9, the initial estimate of the one-year inflation rate in the United States in October was 4.7%, and the forecast was 4.7%.
#U.S. economy10-09 22:00
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On October 9th, the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States in October was 46.3, and the estimate was 47.6.
#U.S. economy10-09 22:00
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[The AI ​​craze in the United States has caused the rental crisis in San Francisco] October 9th, according to reports, San Francisco is the headquarters of leading companies such as OpenAI, and about two-thirds of local residents rent houses. Currently, the average monthly rent for a one-bedroom apartment in the city is as high as $4,400, up more than 25% from last year and almost three times the national average. Although the city of San Francisco has implemented rent controls, landlords hoping to make a fortune from the AI ​​boom are using various loopholes to try to evict old tenants, raise rents or sell off properties. Statistics show that compared with last year, the number of eviction orders issued by landlords in the city has soared by 44% this year. At this stage, the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment is US$6,000, and the rent for a four-bedroom apartment in the city center has exceeded US$10,000. (Xinhua News Agency)
#OpenAI#U.S. economy#US Macro Express#house rental#Property market#AI10-09 15:24
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October 8th: The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States last week was 197,000, compared with an estimate of 200,000.
#U.S. economy10-08 20:30
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[The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was lower than expected] On October 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 197,000. The market forecast was 200,000, and the previous value was 197,000.
#Global market intelligence#US Macro Express#U.S. economy10-01 20:30
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[The U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yield rose to 5.62%, continuing to reach a new high in 24 years] On September 30, the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yield rose to 5.62%, a new high since 2002, rising 5 basis points during the day. The U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yield has risen for seven consecutive days.
#Global market intelligence#U.S. economy#US Macro Express09-30 22:30
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September 30th, the Chicago PMI of the United States in September was 58.8, which was expected to be 51.2 and the previous value was 47.1.
#U.S. economy09-30 21:45
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[U.S. core PCE increased by 0.2% month-on-month in August, lower than market expectations] On September 30, the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) increased by 0.2% month-on-month in August, which was expected to be 0.3%, and the previous value was 0.2%.
#U.S. economy#US Macro Express09-30 20:30
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September 30th: U.S. Treasury yields edged higher after ADP employment growth exceeded expectations.
#U.S. economy#US Macro Express09-30 20:18
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September 30th, ADP data showed that the number of private employment in the United States increased by 90,000 in September, and an increase of 74,000 was expected.
#U.S. economy09-30 20:15
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On September 30, the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate surged to 7.3%, the highest level since November 2023.
#U.S. economy#US Macro Express09-30 19:00
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[The release of the U.S. August PCE tonight may trigger a repricing of interest rate expectations] On September 30, at 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the U.S. August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report will be released. According to Dow Jones consensus forecasts, the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) and core PCE, which excludes food and energy costs, are both expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month in August. On a year-over-year basis, overall PCE is expected to rise 3.7%, while core PCE is expected to rise 3.3%, both unchanged from July and still significantly higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target. The latest PCE data will provide a key reference for judging the state of the U.S. economy before the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting, and may trigger a repricing of U.S. interest rate expectations.
#Federal Reserve News#Monetary Policy Trends#U.S. economy09-30 14:27
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[The U.S. dollar is poised to have its best monthly performance since June, boosted by the Fed's commitment to control inflation] September 30th: As the Federal Reserve once again focuses on curbing inflation, driving up interest rate expectations and U.S. bond yields, the U.S. dollar is poised to have its best month since June. Strong U.S. economic data and rising inflation risks boosted the dollar. The Iran war has led to high energy prices and pushed U.S. bond yields to record highs, with the 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 2002. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by nearly 1 percentage point over the next 12 months, which will further boost the dollar. "The dollar continues to be guided by U.S. economic data," said Jayati Bharadwaj, head of foreign exchange strategy at TD Securities. "The unexpected performance of U.S. economic data will be a directional signal for the trend of the U.S. dollar in the short term, and will also determine whether the Fed's interest rate hikes can meet market expectations."
#Futures Market Intelligence#US Macro Express#Energy Industry News#Federal Reserve News#U.S. economy09-30 08:55
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September 29th, the U.S. consumer confidence index in September was 81.9, compared with the estimate of 89.0.
#U.S. economy09-29 22:00
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On September 28, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent reportedly hired Wall Street economist David Zervos as a consultant to the Treasury Department.
#American politics#U.S. economy09-28 20:05
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[Breaking news in the United States this week is expected to strengthen the Federal Reserve’s case for raising interest rates in October] September 28th, several important economic data to be released this week are expected to further show that the U.S. economy is strengthening, thus providing more basis for the claims of many Federal Reserve officials that interest rates should be further raised. Recent data shows that U.S. retail sales grew in August and business activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than five years in September, raising market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again as soon as October. But the good news about economic growth comes with a price: Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, forcing the central bank to consider raising interest rates again, further putting pressure on households and businesses. Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years. Adding to the tension, the Fed's next interest rate decision will be announced just days before the closely watched midterm elections.
#U.S. economy#Federal Reserve News#Monetary Policy Trends09-28 18:51
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[Mogul Morgan: The market may overestimate the extent of the Fed's interest rate hikes but lacks catalysts for a dovish turn in the short term] On September 28, Morgan Stanley's latest U.S. Economic Weekly pointed out that the U.S. bond market is encountering a "perfect storm": economic growth resilience, inflation stickiness, energy market intervention risks, the Fed's turn to hawkishness, corporate bond issuance, fiscal deficits, and uncertainty about the Treasury Department's operations have jointly pushed up yields. Since March, 2-year, 5-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields have risen by about 120-150 basis points cumulatively; after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, the market priced in an additional tightening of nearly 100 basis points. Morgan Stanley believes that the market may overestimate the extent of the final interest rate hike, but there is a lack of fundamental catalysts in the short term to push expectations to turn dovish.
#catalyst#US Macro Express#Federal Reserve News#U.S. economy#Brokerage strategy09-28 18:01
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[Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal caused oil prices to rise, and the bond market sell-off returned] September 28 (Xinhua) U.S. President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to rise, exacerbating market concerns about inflation, and the U.S. Treasury bond sell-off returned with a vengeance on Monday. Short-term U.S. Treasuries, which are sensitive to interest rates, and their global peers fell sharply. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.91%, while the German and British yields of the same maturity rose 5 basis points to 3.33% and 4.89% respectively. Global bond markets are experiencing a sell-off as rising energy prices threaten to push up inflation. In the United States, a surge in business activity, concerns about government debt levels and the prospect of higher interest rates have further exacerbated the trend. Last week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to its highest level since 2007.
#Qualcomm#middle east conflict#Crude oil market dynamics#U.S. debt dynamics#U.S. economy09-28 17:03
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[The "Big Short" said Trump knows that AI is the only driving force supporting the U.S. economy and cannot let it decline] On September 28, "The Big Short" Burry wrote in his latest post on Substack, "Trump and his team are very clear that the promotion and construction of AI is the only driving force supporting the U.S. economy and is also the most positive development this year. They cannot let the economy decline."
#AI#U.S. economy09-28 15:52
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September 28th, Citibank analysts said that the repricing of short-term U.S. bond interest rates in the past month has reached its highest level since the 1990s, and short-term valuations have become too high. Data in 2026 shows that in weeks with Treasury auctions, the selling pressure on U.S. bonds is significantly greater than in weeks without new debt issuance.
#Banking Industry News#U.S. economy09-28 15:19
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[The U.S. Treasury yield curve almost issued a warning that the market narrative may begin to shift toward the risk of economic stagnation] On September 28, the U.S. bond market almost sent out a signal: a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve will begin to shift the market narrative toward concerns about the risk of U.S. economic stagnation. Last week, the extra yield investors required to hold the 10-year Treasury note over the 2-year Treasury note narrowed to just 17 basis points, the smallest spread since early 2025. This flattening of the yield curve increases the likelihood that 10-year Treasury yields will soon fall below short-term Treasury yields, a closely watched phenomenon known as an inverted yield curve. Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a powerful signal: The past eight recessions since the 1960s have all shown signs of an inverted yield curve, although the predictive power inherent in such movements proved to be biased earlier this decade. This is essentially a way for bond investors to express their expectations that the Fed will push interest rates high enough to suppress economic growth in an effort to curb inflation. “Seeing the 2-year and 10-year yield curves invert or flatten sharply calls into question the narrative that the economy is very strong, which is part of what the bond market is pricing in,” said Zach Griffiths, head of investment grades and macro strategy at CreditSights.
#U.S. debt dynamics#U.S. economy#US Macro Express09-28 14:25
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[Wall Street faces a new pattern of interest rates: 5% U.S. bond yields may become the norm or even the lower limit] September 25th, as U.S. Treasury bond yields break through one high after another, Wall Street and Washington are becoming increasingly aware of a reality: This may not just be a round of bond market decline, but a fundamental change. A combination of factors has pushed up the U.S. government's borrowing costs, including $100-per-barrel oil prices, a boom in investment in artificial intelligence, and a huge U.S. budget deficit that has pushed the debt to a record $40 trillion. At the same time, the Fed remains determined to tamp down inflation that has been running above target for years. Today, nearly all benchmark Treasury bond yields in the United States are hovering around 5% or higher, with the five-year Treasury yield crossing 5% for the first time since 2007 on Wednesday.
#AI#Global market intelligence#U.S. economy#US Macro Express09-25 17:59
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September 24th: The yield on U.S. 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds rose with oil prices, hitting a multi-year high.
#Global market intelligence#US Macro Express#U.S. economy09-24 23:21
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On September 24th, Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin stated that the persistence of inflation has become more obvious this summer.
#US Macro Express#Federal Reserve News#U.S. economy09-24 20:49
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[Mogul Morgan: If the United States bans diesel exports, gasoline prices will rise] September 24th, Morgan Stanley analysts said that if the Trump administration bans the United States from exporting diesel, U.S. drivers should be prepared for rising gasoline prices. The report explains that this is because once diesel sales are banned overseas, domestic oil storage tanks in the United States will be filled within weeks, forcing refiners to reduce production activities, which will lead to lower gasoline production and higher prices.
#Crude oil market dynamics#Energy futures#U.S. economy#Brokerage strategy09-24 20:47
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September 24th, New York Fed President Williams said that he had seen the U.S. economy show remarkable resilience.
#U.S. economy#Federal Reserve News09-24 16:16
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[Brookings Institution: Total U.S. investment in data centers and related AI infrastructure is expected to reach $10.3 trillion from 2025 to 2032] September 24th, Brookings Institution economist Stijn van Nieuwerburgh estimated in a newly released paper this week that the U.S.’s total investment in data centers and related AI infrastructure is expected to reach $10.3 trillion between 2025 and 2032. This means that annual investment will account for a staggering 3.6% of US gross domestic product (GDP). Never in history since the 19th century has the U.S. economy been so dependent on the expansion of a single industry. This investment is profoundly reshaping every corner of the U.S. economy, creating hundreds of thousands of jobs and spawning a new class of billionaires. At the same time, it also brings huge risks because a lot of it is built on debt. Once industry expansion comes to an abrupt halt, the resulting shock wave will quickly sweep through the entire U.S. economy.
#AI infrastructure#AI#U.S. economy#Infrastructure investment#data center09-24 15:54
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September 23rd, the S&P Global Composite PMI in the United States rose to a five-year high in September.
#U.S. economy#US Macro Express09-23 21:47
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[Trump’s approval rating in polls hit a record low, the midterm election situation is urgent] On September 22, a poll showed that Trump’s approval rating fell to 32%, setting a new low in his presidential career. When registered voters were asked about their voting preferences in the midterm elections, support for Democrats was 43% and Republicans were 35%. Since Trump launched the war against Iran in February, U.S. gasoline and diesel prices have risen sharply, pushing up U.S. inflation.
#U.S. economy#American politics#US Macro Express09-22 14:25