Abstract:
Economist José García Montalvo estimates that as many as 1.5 million American employees may be absent from work on the day "GTA6/Grand Theft Auto 6" is released to experience the game, and the potential loss caused by reduced productivity is approximately US$1 billion. This estimate is based on a release date of November 19, 2026, and the impact may be more concentrated on men aged 18 to 30 and the technology industry.
In addition to directly asking for leave, playing all night, watching live broadcasts and participating in discussions may also affect employees' performance the next day. However, the figures of 1.5 million people and US$1 billion are both ex-ante estimates, of which US$1 billion is an assumed loss of productivity, which does not mean that the U.S. economy will definitely suffer direct losses of the same amount by then.
For reference, after "Grand Theft Auto 5" was launched in 2013, as many as 6% of employees aged 18 to 35 in some American cities took leave. However, the actual impact of "GTA6/Grand Theft Auto 6" is still difficult to accurately predict. California-based Burger Motorsports has informed customers that its order processing and support may be slowed down starting November 19 as some employees are furloughed for the on-sale period.
Newzoo analysts also predict that "GTA6/Grand Theft Auto 6" will sell at least 37 million copies in the first week, with global revenue reaching US$4.5 billion. These numbers are also forecasts and whether they can be realized depends on a variety of factors.
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