Abstract:
Icelandians are expected to refuse to restart accession talks with the EU in Saturday's referendum. According to data released by Iceland's national broadcaster (RUV), after the preliminary counting of the vast majority of votes, voters who oppose negotiations with the 27-member EU currently lead by a slim margin of 50.1%, while supporters account for 49.9%. Votes in opposition-dominated constituencies have not yet been counted and official results are expected to be announced on Sunday afternoon local time.
Concerns about sovereignty and control over its vast fishing and agricultural holdings have taken center stage in the vote in the Atlantic nation of less than 400,000 people. As a Nordic country, Iceland has gained access to the EU single market through the European Economic Area Agreement.
At a time when the EU is trying to speed up accession negotiations and break the 13-year stagnation in membership expansion, this referendum has also become a test of the EU's geopolitical credibility.
If the referendum is rejected, it would show that Icelanders are not overly concerned about the changing geopolitical landscape, even though U.S. President Donald Trump's intentions for Greenland sparked a diplomatic crisis within NATO earlier this year. It is worth mentioning that Iceland is the only member of the military alliance that does not have a standing army.
Although the referendum is advisory in nature, the Icelandic government has said it will abide by its results.
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