There is no doubt that DRAM will be out of stock in 2027. The original storage manufacturer suddenly issued a "friendly notice"

Abstract:

According to Digitimes reports,

Recently, the industry has received "friendly notices" from upstream memory manufacturers, clearly conveying that shipments will be significantly reduced in 2027. The gap between DRAM supply and demand is very large, and even the original manufacturers' production capacity from 2027 to 2028 has almost been booked.

Chen Qingwen, General Manager of Team Group, said that the truly serious shortage may occur in the first half of 2027. By then, very little external supply will be available, and Team Group will be able to only select customers for supply.

He is worried that the selection of customers by memory chip-related manufacturers may affect subsequent revenue.

Chen Qingwen pointed out that

DRAM demand is currently more stable than NAND flash memory, and the gap is very obvious and huge.

Team Group's main product is DRAM, accounting for about 75% to 80%. Next year's operating strategy will focus on safety inventory and customer screening.

This judgment is consistent with the warnings of many institutions. Public reports show that the DRAM and HBM production capacity of Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix for 2027 has been fully allocated, covering long-term agreement major customers and small and medium-sized buyers. The DRAM quota that mobile phone and PC manufacturers can obtain in 2027 is expected to be significantly reduced compared with 2026.

A study released by Goldman Sachs in June 2026 predicted that the global DRAM supply and demand gap from 2026 to 2028 will be 5.0%, 5.9% and 3.9%. Multiple media outlets summarized supply chain news and pointed out that most customers only received 60% to 70% of their initial requests for final shipments, and none of the three original factories had plans to add new production lines.

SK Group Chairman Cui Taiyuan also recently stated that 2027 will face the most serious supply and demand imbalance in history. The surge in AI capital expenditures is pushing the storage market into an unprecedented structural shortage cycle.

For downstream terminal manufacturers, the "friendly notice" from the original manufacturer means that the DRAM supply available next year will be significantly reduced, and cost pressure will be further transmitted to the downstream.

Small and medium-sized manufacturers may not even be able to find the door to request supplies.

Either forced to accept higher purchase prices, or adjust product configuration to cope with tight supply.