China accounts for 30% of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions, and more than half of its electricity sources rely on coal. From the perspective of global coal-fired power generation, the newly installed capacity exceeds the phase-out amount in terms of output power. Not only emerging countries, but developed countries also rely on coal in extraordinary times...

China’s carbon dioxide emissions account for 30% of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions, and more than half of its electricity sources rely on coal. From the perspective of global coal-fired power generation, the newly installed capacity exceeds the phase-out amount in terms of output power. Not only emerging countries, but also developed countries rely on coal during extraordinary times...

The global dependence on coal has not yet put the brakes on. In China, the largest consumer country, the current coal-fired power generation capacity far exceeds that of the past five years. The economic recovery from the new crown epidemic has been coupled with the intense heat, and power demand has expanded. Europe is also facing natural gas supply concerns due to the Ukraine crisis, and there is a desperate return to coal. In general, the new installed capacity of coal power exceeds the rate of elimination, and decarbonization goals have become unclear.

China accounts for 30% of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions, and more than half of its electricity sources rely on coal. Data from French satellite data company Kayrros shows that China's average daily coal-fired power generation increased by 14.2% in July compared with a year ago. This is extrapolated from observations of carbon dioxide from space.


In June 1 year ago, Shanghai lifted the blockade. At the beginning of 2023, China changed its epidemic prevention measures. Electricity demand is on the rise due to phased economic normalization. This summer has seen unusually hot weather. The temperature in Beijing in June reached 41.1 degrees Celsius, the highest in observation history. In this record-breaking high temperature, air conditioning is indispensable.

China is not alone in its lack of progress on decarbonization. A July report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) showed that coal demand in India, the second largest consumer, will increase by 8% in 2022. Indonesia grew by 36% and became the fifth largest consumer country in the world. Overall global demand is also expected to hit a record high in 2023.

Coal has low cost and is easy to purchase stably. Not only emerging countries, but also developed countries rely on coal in emergency times. Germany, the standard-bearer for decarbonization, is no exception. The crisis in Ukraine has led to disruptions in natural gas supplies from Russia. German Economy and Climate Protection Minister Habeck considered the situation "serious" and increased coal thermal power generation. France is also starting to restart.

Japan maintains that coal accounts for about 30% of its electricity sources. The nuclear power plant accident occurred in 2011, which increased dependence on coal by about 5 percentage points. There is currently no prospect of cuts.

Data from the US survey group Global Energy Monitor (Global Energy Monitor) shows that from the perspective of global coal thermal power generation, the number of new installations exceeds the amount of phase-out in terms of output power. Most of the new installations are located in Asia, including Japan, as well as Poland and Türkiye in Europe. The pace of elimination in China, which accounts for 50% of new installed capacity, has slowed significantly.


Even taking into account the efficiency improvements brought by new installations, the fact that coal-fired power has relatively high greenhouse gas emissions will not change. If we cannot get rid of our dependence on coal power, we may soon have to pay the price. As an international framework to combat global warming, the Paris Agreement sets the goal of limiting the increase in temperature to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with the pre-industrial revolution. If this level is exceeded, risks such as high temperatures and heavy rains will rise sharply.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) once again estimated in its March report that there are still 400 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions allowed to achieve the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal. If the current emission rate of 40 billion tons per year continues, the limit will be reached in about 10 years. UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed a sense of crisis, saying "the climate time bomb is ticking."

Countries and regions are not powerless. Data from the British think tank Ember shows that global renewable energy power generation will triple between 2000 and 2022. It has expanded to 1.8 times in the last 10 years alone. China's solar and wind power generation has also increased significantly. Daisuke Hayashi, a professor at Ritsumeikan University in Japan, pointed out, “Since the 2000s, in order to deal with air pollution, it has been cultivated as an emerging industry at the national level.”

The problem is that renewable energy alone cannot support a growing economy. Global coal power generation will also increase by 15% in 10 years, almost continuously rising.

Higher temperatures due to climate warming will deepen dependence on fossil fuels that contribute to climate warming. This vicious cycle is currently emerging. The buffer period of only 10 years may even be shortened further.