Google’s recent breakthroughs in quantum computing, its latest cutting-edge Willow chip, have captured not only the imagination of the market at large, but also the recognition of high-profile innovators like Elon Musk and OpenAI’s Sam Altman. However, in this dynamic environment, some cryptocurrency skeptics have begun to view Bitcoin as the ultimate loser in the coming paradigm shift, when in reality, this argument could not be further from the truth.
Google's Willow quantum computing architecture is revolutionary in two ways: it can dynamically reduce errors as qubits are added, and the scale of the entire system grows, overcoming a major obstacle; and it is able to complete a given computing task in 5 minutes, while today's fastest supercomputers take 10 septillion (10^25) years to complete the same task.
This has sparked doomsday predictions about Bitcoin from all sides, with most such assertions trying to highlight that the cryptocurrency’s inherent encryption may soon be cracked.
In reality, however, cracking Bitcoin’s encryption is no easy task. According to serious estimates, it would take up to 1,500 qubits to work continuously for 15 to 20 years to crack a cryptocurrency. Note that Google's Willow chip currently only has 105 qubits.
What’s more, even if quantum computing technology in the near future is able to break Bitcoin’s encryption, as a recent peer-reviewed paper speculates, it will only jeopardize dormant wallets, as it is very likely that almost all active wallets will migrate to quantum-resistant signatures – enabled by a Bitcoin soft fork – before such an outcome becomes a reality.
However, this analysis does not diminish the revolutionary character of Google's recent innovations in the quantum field.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has fallen to a price of $95,000. While some cryptocurrency skeptics view this decline as a direct result of Google’s quantum computing breakthrough, it is more of a response to the global risk aversion permeating the market today. Microsoft shareholders appear to have voted against investing in Bitcoin, according to preliminary vote tallies, which does nothing to improve the current broad sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency.