Tesla's dominance of the U.S. new energy passenger vehicle market slipped last year, with rivals such as General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. accounting for the majority of sales for the first time since 2017. Elon Musk's company has accounted for more than half of U.S. pure electric vehicle sales for years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Marklines. But last year, Tesla's share of the U.S. pure electric vehicle market was only 48%, down from 57% in 2023 and 65% in 2022.

GM's sales grew 50% last year, helped by new models such as the Equinox and Chevrolet Blazer and the growing popularity of the Cadillac Lyric. Ford's sales in 2024 will increase by 30% year-on-year, despite not launching any new new energy models.

The biggest surprise comes from Honda Motor Co., which will increase its U.S. pure electric vehicle market share from zero in 2023 to 3% in 2024. This growth comes from two new pure electric models - Honda Prologue and Acura ZDX. The Prologue is the seventh-best-selling all-electric vehicle in the United States.

Tesla struggles to maintain share of U.S. pure electric vehicle market


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Marklines. (Note: Sales volume in the fourth quarter of 2024 is not final and may change slightly.)

Tesla's aging model lineup doesn't help either. Except for the expensive and polarizing Cybertruck (first launched in 2023), the company has not released a new new energy model since the Model Y debuted in 2020. Tesla has been in a similar position only once so far - in 2017, when the company also had a 48% share of the U.S. pure electric vehicle market. It was the Model 3 released at the end of 2017 that allowed Tesla's U.S. pure electric vehicle market share to rise to 80% in 2018.

The latest forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that U.S. new energy vehicle sales will increase by 29% to just over 2 million units in 2025. About 80% of sales will come from pure electric models.

If Tesla wants to maintain its share of the U.S. pure electric vehicle market in 2024, it must sell more than 780,000 vehicles in the U.S., which would be a 30% increase from 2024 results. Without new models and with sales in the U.S. down 11% last year, achieving this goal will be difficult.