However, behind this huge investment, there is a "trap" - if OpenAI cannot successfully transform into an independent for-profit company by the end of the year, it will only receive half of the funding of US$20 billion.
This is not only a financing game, but also a key test for the future development of OpenAI.
The initial RMB 10 billion is certain, and the transformation is successful with "full payment"
According to reports, this round of financing will be led by Japan’s SoftBank and is expected to contribute up to US$30 billion, with the remainder completed in conjunction with other investors such as Microsoft.
If all goes well, OpenAI’s valuation will soar to US$300 billion, making it the “King of Unicorns” in the field of AI.
However, this $40 billion is not easy to come by.
The funding is mainly divided into two parts: the initial US$10 billion has been confirmed, but whether the remaining US$30 billion can be received depends on whether OpenAI can complete the transformation before the end of the year.
If it fails, the second part of the funds will shrink to 10 billion US dollars, and the total amount will be directly "cut in half" to 20 billion.
This condition undoubtedly adds a sense of urgency to OpenAI's restructuring path.
As a leading investor, SoftBank obviously hopes to use this clause to accelerate OpenAI’s transformation and ensure a return on its investment.
For OpenAI, this is both an opportunity and a huge pressure.
The biggest obstacle to restructuring: Microsoft
As an organization originally established as a non-profit organization, OpenAI's unique structure was core to attracting talent and maintaining a sense of mission.
However, OpenAI's road to restructuring will face multiple challenges.
First, it needs the approval of its largest shareholder, Microsoft.
As an important partner of OpenAI, Microsoft holds a large stake and has veto power over this change, but it is obviously unwilling to let go easily.
It is reported that Microsoft has a tough attitude towards reorganization, and the negotiations between the two parties may be a tug of war.
In addition, the California Attorney General will also review the transition, and legal and regulatory uncertainties further add to the complexity.
Even more thorny are the challenges from the outside - Musk has been trying to block the reorganization by filing lawsuits, further adding to the uncertainty.
Musk has a long-standing feud with OpenAI. He believes that OpenAI has deviated from its original non-profit mission. This lawsuit is undoubtedly a "ticking time bomb" in the reorganization process.
The roots of all this can be traced back to the end of 2023.
At that time, the OpenAI board of directors briefly removed Altman from his position as CEO because he "failed to remain consistently honest" in his communications.
The incident caused an uproar and caused investors to question the stability of OpenAI’s non-profit structure.
A few days later, although Altman was reinstated, investors' concerns did not dissipate, but instead promoted calls for transformation.
20 billion "life and death line", OpenAI breaks through
For OpenAI, reorganization is not just a pass to get $40 billion, but also a key battle for survival.
Currently, OpenAI is losing billions of dollars every year to train AI models, operate systems, and attract top research talent.
At the same time, the company also committed to investing US$18 billion in the construction of the "Stargate" data center project.
If it can only obtain US$20 billion, OpenAI's financial situation will be even more stretched, and its future development blueprint may face major adjustments.
The reason why investors are willing to continue "blood transfusion" is because they expect the convertible bonds in their hands to be converted into traditional equity after the restructuring and share OpenAI's future growth dividends.
If the transformation fails, not only will the capital chain be under pressure, but investor confidence may also be shaken.
More importantly, OpenAI’s content licensing agreements with companies such as NewsCorp require ongoing investment, and these costs cannot be ignored.
In 25 years, the revenue will exceed 12.7 billion, but it will take another 5 years to make profit.
People familiar with the matter said that OpenAI expects to achieve amazing revenue growth in 2025——
It surged from US$3.7 billion last year to US$12.7 billion this year, an increase of more than threefold.
What’s even more shocking is that OpenAI’s revenue is expected to double again next year, reaching $29.4 billion.
By 2029, this number could soar to $125 billion.
Over the past two years, OpenAI has launched a variety of subscription services for consumers and enterprises. As of September last year, the number of paying users of its enterprise version of ChatGPT had exceeded the 1 million mark.
Recently, they also added a $200 per month ChatGPTPro subscription option.
Additionally, the company is exploring high-end pricing strategies of charging thousands of dollars per month for specific AI products.
However, behind success, there is also a high price to pay.
Developing cutting-edge large models requires huge investments, including high-performance chips, data center construction, and the recruitment of top talent.
It is reported that OpenAI does not expect to achieve positive cash flow until 2029. This means that despite rapid revenue growth, companies still need to continue investing to maintain technology leadership.
This financing game of OpenAI is not only a turning point for itself, but also reflects the competitive situation of the entire AI industry.
In the generative AI craze, funding and technology are the keys to success.
If OpenAI can successfully complete its reorganization, it will not only consolidate its leading position in the industry, but may also further widen the gap with its competitors.
But if it fails, it may be forced to find new ways to survive amid financial difficulties.
40 billion or 20 billion? The answer will be revealed by the end of the year.