Apple's production capacity transfer to India is far from complete. 9 million US iPhones still need to be "made in China"

While Apple is trying to de-risk its global supply chain by moving major iPhone production from China to India,However, according to the latest analysis by Jefferies analysts, Apple still seems unable to completely get rid of its dependence on China's production capacity, and still needs to ship approximately 9 million iPhones directly from China to the United States.

Apple has adopted a two-pronged strategy to deal with import tariffs and trade wars:On the one hand, moving the main production of iPhones from China to India.

On the other hand, when the U.S. government imposed high import tariffs on India, Apple secured tariff exemptions for its products by pledging to invest $600 billion in the next few years to establish a local end-to-end silicon supply chain in the United States.

However, Jefferies analysts pointed out in the latest report that although Apple has transferred most of its production activities to India, it still cannot fully rely on India to meet the strong demand for iPhones in the US market in the short term.

Therefore, Apple still needs to rely on some of China's production capacity to meet the needs of the U.S. market. Specifically,Jefferies predicts that Apple may ship as many as 9 million iPhones from China to the United States in fiscal 2026. It should be noted that Apple's new fiscal year starts in October.

Coupled with the impact of tariffs, Apple's earnings per share in fiscal 2026 may be cut by as much as 5%.