Can the artificial intelligence boom continue to support the U.S. economy? Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, is skeptical. Zandi has sounded many warnings this year, arguing that the U.S.'s economic strength is weakening amid growing headwinds. In an article this week, he said it's still possible for the U.S. to avoid a recession in the coming year, but only if all goes well.
The main risk he sees is that the economic boost from the AI boom will be undermined by another megatrend: the Trump administration’s deglobalization policies.
"Whether the economy can grow and whether it can successfully navigate the headwinds of deglobalization and artificial intelligence depends on everything staying on schedule. Of course, on the tariff issue, a lot of things can go off script," he said.
Zandi worries that Trump’s trade policies could accelerate the U.S. into recession. Now, he sees deglobalization as a growing threat to economic development, as tariffs and restrictive immigration policies raise costs and put pressure on labor markets.
Zandi said that artificial intelligence contributed 0.63 percentage points to GDP growth this year. Without artificial intelligence, the U.S. economy may fall into recession. However, deglobalization will be a drag on further expansion next year.
"Deglobalization will remain a significant drag in 2026, reducing real GDP growth by 1.19 percentage points," the economist added.
He went on to note that the ultimate benefits of AI may not be felt for some time either, citing examples of other "breakthrough technologies" that can only boost growth when they are more fully integrated into businesses.
Additionally, Zandi worries that the benefits of AI will be largely limited to the already wealthy, which could limit its contribution to overall economic growth even as the AI boom continues to drive up stock prices.
"Our already highly skewed distribution of income and wealth will become even more skewed. Economic and political struggles between haves and have-nots will intensify to the detriment of everyone," he predicted.
Zandi added that even as the U.S. government prepares to reopen this week, the macroeconomic impact of the shutdown could push the economy away from expectations.