Kalshi, an American prediction market trading platform, recently set odds on when Elon Musk will become the world's first trillionaire. The probability of achieving this goal "before 2027" has just reached 82%. For those willing to make this bet, they would actually pay just 82 cents for a $1 return (assuming they guessed correctly). The odds don't seem high, but they show that the vast majority of people believe Musk will soon become the world's first trillionaire.
Musk's current net worth is estimated to be more than $800 billion, including $500 billion worth of SpaceX assets (the company's recent merger with xAI has a valuation of $1.25 trillion), and $300 billion worth of Tesla stock and options. That doesn’t include Musk’s $1 trillion stock-based compensation package in 2025, which Musk hasn’t actually received yet.
SpaceX plans to sell shares this year in an initial public offering that could give the company a market value of $1.8 trillion. That would add about $200 billion to the company's market capitalization, enough to make Musk worth $1 trillion if Tesla's stock price holds steady.
There are few who can rival Musk in the race to become a billionaire. Google co-founder Larry Page is worth approximately $240 billion.
Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg is worth approximately $200 billion. Met recently launched a compensation plan based on a company market capitalization of $9 trillion, a six-fold increase from recent levels. If that happens, Zuckerberg's current stock holdings, worth about $200 billion, would soar to $1.2 trillion.
Kalsi's independent market forecasts that Zuckerberg has less than a 1% chance of becoming the world's first trillionaire. In other words, if you guess correctly, you can earn 99 cents by investing less than 1 cent.