Counterpoint Research released the latest research saying that smartphones with non-terrestrial network (NTN) connection capabilities are entering a critical growth stage, and it is expected that by 2030, such products will account for 46% of global smartphone shipments. The report believes that market growth in the next few years will still be mainly driven by manufacturers such as Apple, Samsung, Google and Huawei, among which high-end models will still be the core carrier of satellite communication smartphones.
The report points out that in the short term, the market will be driven more by proprietary solutions dominated by various manufacturers, while the NTN ecosystem based on 3GPP standards still faces practical challenges such as insufficient chip readiness, operator certification, and service maturity. This also means that although satellite connectivity has become one of the differentiating capabilities of smartphones, the industry is still some way away from true mass adoption.
From the perspective of industry development history, Apple is the first brand to bring satellite connectivity into the mainstream smartphone market. In 2022, it will introduce related capabilities to iPhone 14 through cooperation with Globalstar. The report also mentioned that Amazon’s recent acquisition of Globalstar not only allowed it to quickly access related infrastructure, but also opened up new commercialization space for it in the field of “connection as a service”. Huawei will become the second manufacturer to bring satellite connections to smartphones in 2023. Now more than 10 brands have launched mobile phone products that support satellite connections.
In terms of manufacturer structure, Counterpoint analysts said that Apple is still the world's leading manufacturer based on NTN-capable smartphone shipments, while in the Android camp, Samsung is in the leading position. Apple, Huawei and Google currently prefer to adopt the proprietary NTN path; at the same time, Android brands such as Samsung, Xiaomi, OPPO, Honor and vivo are more consistent with the 3GPP NTN path to strive for stronger scale capabilities and interoperability.
However, the report also emphasized that the current satellite smartphone market is still mainly supported by the high-end price segment, and the lack of truly attractive "killer applications" has become a key factor restricting its entry into the mass market. At this stage, application scenarios based on 3GPP Release 17 are still mainly focused on SOS emergency assistance and message communication. According to the agency’s judgment, Release 18 will help promote more high-end models and brands to follow suit, while large-scale popularization in the mid-range market may not accelerate significantly until Release 19 further matures.
In terms of chip competition, the report stated that Qualcomm is currently at the forefront of the Android satellite communication chip camp, mainly relying on Snapdragon X80 and X85 modems to promote the implementation of related capabilities. At the same time, Huawei, Google and Samsung are also continuing to enhance their competitiveness, and MediaTek is promoting NTN integration through MT6825 5G SoC. Research institutions believe that the addition of more chip manufacturers will further enhance market competition and is expected to help related technologies accelerate their move towards scale.
From a regional market perspective, North America currently leads the global popularity of satellite smartphones, driven by early investment from telecom operators, satellite operators and smartphone manufacturers. The report cited that cooperation between T-Mobile and SpaceX, AT&T and AST Mobile, Rogers and SpaceX, coupled with the binding of Apple and Globalstar, have jointly promoted satellite connectivity capabilities to enter the smartphone market faster. In contrast, telecom operators in other regions such as Europe and China have not yet accelerated the deployment of related services on a large scale, but satellite operators are continuing to increase network capacity to meet broader mass market needs in the future.
For long-term prospects, Counterpoint predicts that by 2030, almost one in every two smartphones in the world will support satellite connectivity. Apple, Google and Samsung are expected to maintain the lead in overall penetration, while Android brands targeting the entry-level and mid-range price segments are likely to have relatively low satellite connection penetration levels. The report believes that if more Android manufacturers and more operators outside developed markets join in the future, it will become an important factor in further increasing the speed of global penetration.
In addition, the agency pointed out that the expansion of the satellite smartphone connection market will not only bring opportunities to mobile phone manufacturers, but also create new growth space for SoC suppliers, component companies, telecom operators and satellite operators. Looking further, this capability is also expected to give rise to new service models and bundled packages. For example, Amazon may integrate satellite connections into platforms such as Amazon Prime in the future to enhance the overall consumer experience. However, the final growth rate of the industry will still depend on whether all parties in the ecosystem can work together to solve problems such as design and cost constraints, insufficient application scenarios, regulatory complexity, and low network maturity.