Shipping data shows that the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports has sharply shrunk Iran's oil exports, with more and more crude oil backlogged on tankers as Iran's onshore storage facilities run out of space. Analysts say it is now almost impossible to measure how much crude oil Iran has delivered to customers, as some ships have turned off their tracking systems and the U.S. military continues to intercept Iranian tankers.
Oil analytics firm Vortexa said only a small number of ships carrying Iranian crude left the Gulf of Oman between April 13 and 25. That was down more than 80% from the same period in March, when Iran exported 23.4 million barrels of crude, London Stock Exchange Group data showed.
Some ships leaving Iranian ports have been intercepted by the United States, as well as sanctioned container ships and Iranian oil tankers sailing in Asian waters. Vortexa said in an email to Reuters: "At this stage, we estimate that approximately 4 million barrels of Iranian crude oil were successfully shipped out of the Gulf of Oman. We are currently unable to confirm whether these vessels have since been intercepted."
Benchmark Brent crude futures have risen about $50 a barrel since the war with Iran broke out on February 28, pushing up prices for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. The International Energy Agency called this the world's largest oil supply disruption.
No oil tankers have left the Gulf since the blockade
Kpler analysts said they have not observed any Iranian crude oil tankers leaving the Gulf of Oman since the blockade began. US Central Command said on Wednesday (April 29) that its blockade was cutting off much-needed crude oil export revenue for the Iranian regime. "There are currently 41 tankers carrying 69 million barrels of oil that the Iranian regime cannot sell."
Iran's currency, the rial, fell to a record low against the dollar on Wednesday, underscoring the financial difficulties facing the oil-reliant economy. Maritime intelligence firm TankerTrackers said Iran was still loading crude oil at its main export hub on Khark Island despite pressure. Satellite images show at least 10 oil tankers anchored near Iran's Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman.
Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball said Iran may be forced to start cutting production within a week or two due to insufficient storage space. Kpler said Iran's onshore storage facilities are about 60% full, with inventories exceeding 50 million barrels and a total capacity of 86 million barrels. Consulting firm FGE NextantECA estimated on April 15 that production capacity constraints may force Iran to start reducing production in mid-June.