Tesla (TSLA.US) is expected to hit a new high in electric vehicle deliveries in 2023, but it is still some way off the ambitious 2 million target proposed by Musk at the beginning of this year. According to a survey of 14 analysts by LSEG, Tesla is expected to deliver 1.82 million electric vehicles globally in 2023, an increase of 37% from 2022, of which approximately 473,000 vehicles are expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter. Tesla will release fourth-quarter delivery data in early January next year.
Musk predicted at the beginning of this year that Tesla's overall demand situation would remain good, and that on the basis of continued improvement in production capacity and without external interference, annual deliveries of 2 million vehicles could be achieved. However, in October, Musk instead warned that rising borrowing costs were putting pressure on demand.
Faced with slowing sales of electric vehicles, Tesla, which has industry-leading profit margins, has chosen to cut prices to stimulate sales. In the U.S. market, some Detroit auto giants such as General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. appear to be slowing down the pace of their electric transformation, making Tesla the undisputed EV leader in the U.S. market. In the Chinese market, Tesla faces fierce competition from local companies such as BYD, and the company's share of the Chinese market has declined.
Garrett Nelson, senior analyst at CFRA Research, said: "The fourth quarter is usually the strongest of the year in terms of Tesla deliveries. We expect that to be the case this year as well." Tesla boosted sales at the end of the year by increasing discounts on major models. The company said it aims to achieve 50% annual growth over the next few years.
Entering 2024, Tesla will have to face the challenge of losing tax credits for some of its models in the United States and Germany. Although interest rate levels and battery raw material costs are expected to decline, this may force Tesla to further cut prices next year to maintain market share, which may further erode its profit margins.
Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jairam Nathan lowered his forecast for Tesla's deliveries next year to 2.04 million units from 2.14 million units and said he expects average revenue per vehicle to fall 4% from 2023.
Tesla is also dealing with increased regulatory scrutiny of its self-driving systems and other components in the United States and some European countries. Earlier this month, Tesla announced that it would recall approximately 2.03 million vehicles. The recall comes after an investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced it had found a flaw in Tesla's Autopilot safety system. The recall notice states that in some cases, this feature and accompanying controls and alerts may not be sufficient to prevent driver misuse. The safety recall covers nearly all Tesla models sold in the United States.
Analysts surveyed by VisibleAlpha expect Tesla to deliver 2.2 million vehicles next year. Most people believe that the newly released electric pickup truck Cybertruck and the updated Model 3 will not be enough to boost demand. Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner mentioned in a report a meeting he had with Tesla's head of investor relations Martin Viecha and said, "Tesla frankly admitted that the company is currently in a period of intermediate low growth."
Investors expect Tesla's profit margins to remain under pressure as it ramps up Cybertruck production and prepares to launch cheaper models. However, Musk has said that the Cybertruck will only account for a small part of Tesla's production next year and that there are "huge challenges" in achieving mass production of this electric pickup truck.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan said in a report that Cybertruck will account for 3% of Tesla sales by 2024. Analysts believe that Cybertruck is more like a "halo" product that may attract consumers to join the brand.