This fall, some parts of Europe saw early snowfall, but then resumed the pattern seen in recent years, with rain and snow following. In the ski resorts of Morzine and Les Gets in the French Alps, heavy rain means that the full opening of the ski resorts will be postponed until two days before Christmas, leaving the ski industry and millions of tourists planning to travel with hope.
But no amount of wishing and hoping can eliminate the existential threat to Alpine skiing, an industry worth $30bn (£23.8bn) and the world's most popular ski resort.
The science is clear and detailed in peer-reviewed reports. The latest report this year warned that if global temperatures rose 2°C above pre-industrial levels, 53% of the 28 European resorts examined would be at extremely high risk of scarce snow.
Snow deficiency is defined as the worst snowfall coverage occurring on average every five years between 1961 and 1990. If global temperatures rise by 4°C, 98% of resorts will face an extremely high risk of scarce snow. Another study showed that there has been an "unprecedented" decline in snow cover in the Alps over the past 600 years, with the duration of snow cover shortening by 36 days.
Some insist that skiing will and can survive if global temperatures stay within the Paris Agreement limits and if the industry adapts. But this year, the International Ski Federation (FIS) has done nothing to ensure the survival of the sport, causing dissatisfaction.
The International Ski Federation became the focus of climate debate in 2019, when then-president Gian Franco Kasper revealed in an interview that he was a climate denier and said he would rather associate with dictators than environmentalists. He subsequently resigned and was replaced by Johan Eliasch. But that doesn’t make the federation any less popular.
This year, 500 professional winter sports athletes published a letter calling on the International Ski Federation to take more climate action. They stressed that the competition schedule forces skiers to commute across the Atlantic every week, creating an unnecessarily large carbon footprint, and called on the International Ski Federation to delay the start of the season and end the season early to respect the changing climate.
Subsequently, the FIS launched a petition in October calling on the FIS to do more to combat climate change.
The campaign wants the International Ski Federation to publish its own environmental impact with full transparency, move its competition calendar at least a month forward to respect the changing climate, reduce the need for air travel and use its political influence to advocate for climate action at government level.
The International Ski Federation said it has committed to reducing carbon emissions by 50% by 2030 as a signatory to the United Nations Framework for Climate Action in Sport (UNFCCC). "We are developing a sustainability plan where we will collect as much data as possible over the coming winter to provide the most accurate estimate of our CO2 footprint.
"We have already delayed the start of winter by a week and will continue to monitor closely whether a later start is needed."
Dom Winter, of Protect Our Winters, the UK group behind the petition, said science showed the demise of skiing was not inevitable if global emissions were reduced, inspiring climate action within the winter sports community. "The future of winter sports depends on how well we reduce emissions over the next few decades," Winter said. "Of course, if temperatures rise by 2°C, resorts at lower altitudes will be in big trouble. But there are still places in the Alps with natural snow, so resorts at higher altitudes can survive. The worry is how expensive and elitist they might become."
A small amount of snowmaking will help sustain some resorts, especially those at lower elevations, he said. But large-scale snowmaking can never replace real snow because it is too expensive and consumes energy and water.
According to the latest research, if snowmaking technology were used to achieve 50% snow coverage on the pistes, the number of resorts in Europe with high-risk snow coverage would be reduced to 27% and 71% at 2 degrees Celsius and 4 degrees Celsius respectively.
Although the same study shows that emissions from snowmaking are small, accounting for only 2% of total resort emissions, large-scale use of artificial snowmaking creates energy and water use issues.
A study by the University of Basel found that resorts at altitudes below 1,800 to 2,000 meters will have to abandon their lower slopes and increasingly rely on artificial snowmaking to keep their higher slopes open.
The impact of using artificial snow for 100 days would increase water use by approximately 540 million liters and pit resorts against local communities over competition for water.
Water use in the French Alps could increase ninefold by 2100 due to reliance on artificial snowmaking, research shows.
The federation stated that only through carbon offsets can it be possible to achieve the 1.5c target in the Paris Agreement; to this end, the federation has developed the International Ski Federation Rainforest Initiative.
So while some are pushing the industry to make more adjustments to keep the sport alive, others are working toward a new future that doesn't focus everything on one sport.
In Morzine, the non-profit sustainability organization Montagne Verte is working at the grassroots level to support the region's move towards a low-carbon future.
Cécile Burton, general manager of Montagne Verte, said: "Temperatures in the Alps are rising at more than twice the global average, which is not good news for industries that rely on snow. Our approach is to focus on four-season tourism in the valleys, making the valleys and mountains a place to live all year round. There is life after skiing, but we must adapt , we have to imagine what our future will look like. A place where you can go hiking, mountain biking, walking, or just enjoy the natural environment all year round. We have to pay more attention to other times of the year, not only from an environmental and sustainability perspective, but also from a human perspective, because for a place to be a place where you can live all year round, you have to have employment opportunities all year round."
In addition to working to envision and support a new future, the organization works with local politicians and the ski industry to push for policies to reduce emissions.
Most of skiing's emissions come from tourist flights to resorts, car travel within resorts and the energy used in accommodation, so Montagne Verte is working to convince politicians and businesses to switch to car-free resorts.
The group recently took eight local mayors to the car-free resort of Zermatt in Switzerland to see if Molsin could follow the resort's lead. The group also successfully encouraged 100 businesses to join the Alpine Express, which offers discounts on ski passes, ski guides, spa massages and yoga for people traveling by train on holiday.
AlJudge, president of luxury chalet vacation company AliKats, is trying to adjust to the day the snow stops.
"We want to shift the seasonal focus from winter skiing to summer," Judge said. "Summer is our second-biggest season, but we're trying to focus on meeting the greater demand for spring and fall vacations so that when the snow stops, we can adapt and become a year-round business."