U.S. electric utilities will be the first to transition to 100% renewable electricity by 2060, exceeding state policy expectations. A UC Boulder study found that technology advances and lower costs are driving the trend, with utilities on track to meet or exceed state goals. The industry's efforts span all states regardless of their renewable energy policy or political orientation, but still lag behind the Biden administration's 2035 goals.
U.S. utilities have pledged to switch entirely to renewable energy by 2060. While state mandates have also contributed to the shift, it is primarily utilities that are spearheading the transition to renewable energy.
"Many people believe that policy changes are not happening fast enough," said CIRES researcher Matthew Burgess, an assistant professor at the University of Colorado Boulder and co-author of a paper published in the journal Climate Change. "But the private sector is moving faster than we thought. A lot of it has to do with technology, falling costs, natural gas replacing coal, renewables replacing fossil fuels - policy is not the only lever."
Inspired by her work in energy and sustainability while interning at a consulting firm, Grace Kroeger led the evaluation of her environmental studies honors thesis at the University of Colorado Boulder.
"I want to take a critical look at what local people are doing, for example, the companies that are responsible for the energy that we all use and consume," Kroger said.
She and Burgess compared states' renewable energy goals to the utilities' own goals. They looked at 30 years of data to assess what shifts utilities have made to meet renewable energy standards and what state-level goals might prompt utilities to make changes.
Typically, states use Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Clean Energy Standards (CES) to mandate changes, but this varies across the country. Some states have no regulations, some have aggressive policies, and some have manageable goals.
They also looked at the utilities' own targets, which are generally posted online. For example, Xcel Energy plans to achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2050. The authors combined the data into projections of when power companies might be able to fully decarbonize.
Surprising discovery: industrial development exceeds policy expectations
What they found may surprise some: Overall, industry is growing faster than policy. The authors predict that the grid will be 100% decarbonized by 2060, as long as utilities keep their promises. When nuclear energy is included in the renewable energy mix, utilities will decarbonize earlier, by 2050.
The study also revealed another surprising finding: Utilities plan to decarbonize across the board, even in states with no renewable energy policies or targets.
"For example, Southern Power Company has decarbonization goals. But the states where the company operates - Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama - don't have portfolio standards," Kroger said.
However, there are differences between blue states and red states. The authors find that blue states tend to pass more stringent renewable energy targets and policies. But even without mandates or standards, most states, including red states, are still on track to decarbonize in line with utility company goals.
The authors note that these findings are based on the utility's stated future plans, which are not guaranteed. However, when looking at historical data, they found that utilities were already transitioning to renewables and fossil fuels faster than planned.
Despite this good news, neither states nor utilities will be able to decarbonize as quickly as the Biden administration announced in April: removing fossil fuels from the U.S. energy industry by 2035. The Biden administration announced a goal in April of this year: fossil fuels will disappear from the U.S. energy industry by 2035.
"There's a lot of very interesting things happening in the private sector," Burgess said. "The private sector makes interesting decarbonization connections between states and makes interesting connections to the policy space."
Compiled source: ScitechDaily