[CITIC Construction Investment: Interest rate hike begins, the tailwind period for U.S. stocks/commodities may end] On September 17th, CITIC Construction Investment’s research report stated that the policy path, the probability of a second interest rate hike within the year is not low, and there will still be great uncertainty next year. Warsh is fully leaning towards preventing inflation, and officials are strongly inclined to continue to tighten inflation. It is difficult to change this tightening narrative in the short term and requires strong macro changes and data support. However, the general direction in 2027 still needs to be observed, as variables such as economic data and working group conclusions exist. The market is cautious in the short term, and the probability of collective retracement or structural differentiation of major asset classes has surged. In the past three years, the bull market (except bonds) has generally risen and faces the risk of ending. ① The macro environment is unfriendly, the economy is K-shaped (insufficient demand), the AI ​​narrative is slowing down (US stock valuations are limited), high interest rates are suppressing (volatility is rising), and asset prices are at historically high levels, it is not easy to get out of the trend market. ② In the past three years, U.S. stocks, industrial products, and precious metals have collectively surged higher. The Federal Reserve's easing cycle has been a major background. With the end of interest rate cuts and the restart of interest rate hikes, various assets have turned from tailwinds to headwinds, and the foundation for general gains has become loose. It is recommended to wait for a round of decline before choosing an opportunity to intervene.