B[The latest strategy of brokerage asset management in the fourth quarter: the overall allocation priority of stocks is better than commodities and bonds] October 11th, entering the fourth quarter, how do asset management institutions rank major categories of assets? Overall, most of the institutions surveyed ranked stocks first, while there were differences in the ranking of bonds and commodities. "From a relative price/performance perspective, stocks and bonds may be better than commodities as a whole." Li Meicen, chief asset allocation officer of Caitong Asset Management, told reporters that in terms of stocks, the valuations of most broad-based indexes are around the 60% historical quantile, and the GEM index is about the 25% quantile. You can choose a direction with performance support in the third quarter or a valuation switch opportunity in 2027 based on the growth boom segmentation and the sustainable direction of traditional undervalued dividends. In terms of commodities, the petroleum chain and agricultural products increased significantly in the third quarter, and there were more adjustments in other directions. In the fourth quarter, the layout can be centered around low-priced varieties. The relevant person in charge of Everbright Securities Asset Management believes that the relative cost performance of major asset classes in the fourth quarter is "stocks > bonds > commodities". The pace of policy efforts has been delayed, domestic demand pressure has increased from July to August, and the economy is likely to "decline first and then increase" in the second half of the year, which will be beneficial to the performance of the stock market in the fourth quarter, and the market is expected to spread from AI to traditional industries. (Brokerage China) B[CITIC Securities: The next round of technology market launch window is likely to be in the fourth quarter] On October 9, CITIC Securities Research Report stated that the transmission of "CapEx → ROIC → EPS" in the computing power industry has been initially verified. The growth of capital expenditures from 2027 to 2028 will support the upward trend of the computing power chain's profitability and will form a solid support for the subsequent technology market. At the same time, the accelerated progress of RSI, the iteration of large versions of domestic models, and the demand for Meta Muse verification of C-side agents are pushing the market focus to extend from infrastructure investment to model capabilities, personal agents, and application monetization. The next round of technology market launch window is likely to be in the fourth quarter of 2026. It also needs to verify three conditions: marginal reversal of interest rate expectations, new narrative to build consensus, and completion of financial rebalancing. It is recommended to insist that structure is more important than position, and pay attention to structural opportunities such as Hong Kong stock model iteration, Internet platforms, hardware technology upgrades, and domestic semiconductor equipment. B[Latest research and judgment from brokerage firms: Waiting for profit verification, recommended balanced allocation] October 9th, since late September, the A-share market has become more volatile. In this regard, many brokerage analysts said in interviews with reporters from Shanghai Securities News: Recent market fluctuations are mainly affected by disturbances from overseas factors and position adjustments by domestic institutions, but the fundamental confidence still exists; combined with the calendar effect, the market in October is still worth looking forward to. In terms of allocation, there is still room for AI industry trends, and real estate, large consumption, etc. are showing signs of recovery. Overall, a balanced allocation is recommended. (Shanghai Securities News) B[CICC: A-shares may have a "good start" after the holiday. It is recommended to pay attention to two main lines] On October 8, CICC's research report stated that looking forward to the holiday, A-shares may have a "good start". A-shares performed weakly before the holiday due to the influence of a number of external factors. During the holidays, overseas markets rose more than they fell, and recent domestic economic data were relatively stable. The three quarterly reports after the holiday are expected to bring certain performance support to the market. Investor confidence is expected to be restored in October, and A-shares are expected to have a "good start" after the holiday. In terms of industry configuration, it is recommended to focus on two main lines: 1. Prosperous growth: The performance of the hardware link of the AI industry chain is generally high, but as the narrative changes in the future, it may face differentiation. Some links with low barriers and rapid production capacity deployment are more risky, while areas with high demand certainty and difficult to alleviate production bottlenecks are expected to continue to benefit. It is recommended to focus on optical communications, semiconductor equipment, and upstream power bottleneck related industries. In addition to the AI industry chain, innovative drugs (especially CXO) and power grid equipment have relatively high overall prosperity. 2. Cycle improvement: The fundamentals of more and more fields are rebounding from the bottom of the cycle. It is recommended to pay attention to areas where the supply and demand pattern is improving from the perspective of the production capacity cycle, such as the chemical industry, petrochemical and engineering machinery industries. The fundamentals of various non-ferrous metal fields are good, but it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the Fed's tightening risk on financial attributes. B[Brokerage firms’ “golden stocks” in October reflect layout ideas and market pricing is expected to return to fundamentals] On October 8, a new batch of brokerage firms’ monthly investment “golden stocks” have been released recently. Wind data shows that as of October 7, when a China Securities Journal reporter went to press, more than 220 A-share and Hong Kong stock targets had been shortlisted for the brokerage's October 2026 "golden stock" portfolio. Judging from the frequency of recommendations, WuXi AppTec has once again become the most popular monthly investment target among securities firms, and Hong Kong stock targets such as Tencent Holdings have received relatively high attention. Regarding the trend of A-shares after the National Day holiday, industry insiders have judged that the suppressive effect of macro variables on the market may subside in stages, and domestic and foreign companies will enter the third quarter performance disclosure window period of listed companies. The market's pricing focus is expected to return to the industrial boom, and risks may increase slightly after the holiday. Preference, the emergence of the turning point in U.S. bond yields is the core condition for further increasing positions; for the Hong Kong stock market, in the future, we need to pay attention to the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September monetary policy meeting and the auction of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds to seek clues on the path of interest rates, and its mid-term reversal has not yet been confirmed. (China Securities Journal) B[CITIC Construction Investment: The post-holiday market is expected to usher in a recovery market after the short-term factors are digested] On October 7, CITIC Construction Investment believes that the pre-holiday A-share decline is driven by the concentrated resonance of multiple short-term factors, and the post-holiday market is expected to usher in a recovery market after the short-term factors are digested. Looking at profits in the short term: A-shares will enter a performance verification period in October; mid-term policies: a new round of policy may be coming; long-term focus on liquidity: the probability of an interest rate hike in October has dropped, but the 30-year U.S. bond interest rate is still high. CITIC Construction Investment expects that after the market recovers after the holiday, A-shares will continue to fluctuate as a whole and continue to have a balanced allocation of both offense and defense. Offensive end: Focusing on AI computing power (PCB, CCL, electronic cloth, etc.) and innovative drugs. Defensive end: Take dividend sectors such as banks, non-banks, coal, and public utilities as bottom positions. B[Many brokerages study and judge the market situation of A-shares in the fourth quarter: Neutral optimism, technology may still have opportunities] October 6th, after the "National Day" holiday is over, A-shares will officially enter the fourth quarter trading time. How will the market performance be performed by then? Overall, many brokerages maintain a certain degree of optimism about A-shares in the fourth quarter. For example, Zheshang Securities predicts that the "diamond structure" will continue in the fourth quarter. In particular, it is neutral to optimistic about domestic policies and broad-based valuations in the fourth quarter. Therefore, it maintains a neutral and optimistic attitude toward the A-share market overall. "After experiencing a volatile correction in the third quarter, we believe that this bull market is not over yet and there is still room for interpretation." Guosen Securities said. Xiangcai Securities predicts that macroeconomics and fundamentals will remain strong for most of the fourth quarter of 2026, and the market is expected to behave as a slow bull in profit defense. In terms of configuration, many brokerages believe that there is still a second wave of opportunities for technology, so AI will still be one of the main lines of configuration in the fourth quarter. (The Paper) B[Xiaomi: Middle East oil exports have returned to 90% of pre-war levels] September 30th, JPMorgan Chase’s latest report showed that with the resumption of operation of the Saudi East-West oil pipeline, Middle East oil exports are recovering rapidly. In the past five days, the 10-day average of regional crude oil and refined oil exports has remained at about 20.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 89% of the normal level in 2025, and only about 11% lower than before the war. However, the recovery has been uneven. Crude oil exports have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 98% of the pre-war level, indicating that the crude oil market has basically returned to normal; refined oil exports are still only about 3 million barrels per day, equivalent to 58% of the normal level, and supply constraints such as diesel and jet fuel are still obvious. JPMorgan Chase emphasized that the recovery of transportation does not mean that the security situation has improved. More precisely, it means that the energy industry has become increasingly able to maintain operations in a continued high-risk environment. Currently, the largest remaining gap in the Middle East oil market has shifted from crude oil to refined oil products. B[Mogul Morgan: The market may overestimate the extent of the Fed's interest rate hikes but lacks catalysts for a dovish turn in the short term] On September 28, Morgan Stanley's latest U.S. Economic Weekly pointed out that the U.S. bond market is encountering a "perfect storm": economic growth resilience, inflation stickiness, energy market intervention risks, the Fed's turn to hawkishness, corporate bond issuance, fiscal deficits, and uncertainty about the Treasury Department's operations have jointly pushed up yields. Since March, 2-year, 5-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields have risen by about 120-150 basis points cumulatively; after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, the market priced in an additional tightening of nearly 100 basis points. Morgan Stanley believes that the market may overestimate the extent of the final interest rate hike, but there is a lack of fundamental catalysts in the short term to push expectations to turn dovish. B["Holding shares for the holidays" has become the mainstream recommendation of institutions, and technology is still the main line of the market in the mid-term] September 28th, last week, A-shares overall showed a volatile consolidation pattern. There are only three trading days this week. As the long holiday approaches, whether to hold currency to celebrate the holiday or to hold stocks to celebrate the holiday has once again become the focus of discussion among investors. In this regard, the brokerage strategy outlook report believes that before the long holiday, the market is often in a state of shrinkage and shock. After the holiday, as funds return, the transaction center is expected to rise. Reviewing historical experience, A-shares have historically shown a certain "National Day holiday effect", with the phenomenon of layout before the holiday and rebound after the holiday. Therefore, most institutions tend to "hold shares for the holidays." (Shanghai Securities News) B[CITIC Securities: It is recommended that Hong Kong stock investors give priority to high-quality industries with strong defensive attributes and stable dividends such as electricity] On September 27, CITIC Securities pointed out that when the total amount of funds is relatively limited, technology and biotechnology, as two types of growth tracks in the Hong Kong stock market with high elasticity and valuations that are more sensitive to liquidity, are more likely to form a trade-off allocation relationship. At the same time, due to the relatively weak southbound capital inflows in 2026, especially since June, foreign capital has continued to return to Hong Kong stocks, dominating marginal pricing power. Therefore, against the background of the continuous outflow of foreign capital from Hang Seng Technology and the inflow into biotechnology, it has promoted the formation of a pattern in which Hang Seng Technology is weak and biotechnology is strong. Overall, both Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Biotech Index are under significant pressure in the high interest rate environment. Under the current expectations of tighter global liquidity, it is recommended that investors give priority to high-quality industries with strong defensive attributes and stable dividends such as power, telecommunications, and public utilities.
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