B · Normal
[Investment strategy: A-share multiple indicators are close to the historical bottom range] On October 25, the investment strategy research report believes that after the recent rapid market decline, many A-share indicators are close to the historical bottom range: the transaction volume has shrunk significantly, and the turnover rate has dropped to close to the historical bottom level. Medium and long-term funds represented by ETFs are accelerating into the market and efforts to stabilize the market have been intensified; the institutional features of the market stabilization mechanism have been strengthened, and policy bottoms have been gradually consolidated; market bottoms often precede fundamental bottoms, and current earnings and PPI are still on an improving trend, which is still a positive driver for A-shares. In terms of external pressure, the Japanese and Korean markets have significantly de-leveraged, and overseas transmission risks are controllable; however, the pricing of AI in US stocks is shifting from "investment expansion" to "capital return verification". High US bond interest rates and rising oil prices have reduced the room for easing, and high interest rates still constrain valuations. Considering that the probability of market rebound has been relatively high in history after ETF heavy volume has supported the bottom, the short term may be dominated by shock bottoming and structural opportunities. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and focus on important nodes in the next two weeks. The core idea of industry allocation in the next 3-6 months is: focus on the advantages of the molecular end during the high interest rate stage, and secondly look at whether the chip structure is healthy; give priority to the breadth of technology when interest rates turn lower; wait for the follow-up domestic policy relay to further spread to domestic demand.
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