B · Normal
[Brazilian market may be about to plummet, Lula's unexpected victory is expected to subvert the "Bolsonaro deal"] On October 26, it was reported that traders were preparing for a sharp decline in the Brazilian market on Monday, after a shocking reversal in the presidential election, in which Lula defeated Flavio Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate favored by many investors. Early signs indicate that the market may fall sharply: ETFs tracking Brazilian stocks plunged 16% in the Japanese market, the largest single-day decline since 2020, and currency derivatives were also affected. Currency derivatives contracts on CME Group showed the real trading at 5.55 reais to the dollar. While this does not directly reflect actual prices, the move means the real is down more than 10% from Friday's closing price. Traders in Sao Paulo said they expected Monday morning's sell-off to be so intense that the declines could trigger circuit breakers. Brokerage firm Monte Bravo previously estimated that the benchmark stock index Ibovespa could plunge 11% in the first hour of trading if Lula wins the election.
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