A · Important
[A quick overview of the key points of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate resolution and press conference: The Fed remains on hold; centrist Cook turns hawkish; Warsh plans to reduce the frequency of decision-making]
1. The Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to maintain the benchmark interest rate at a range of 3.75%-4%, in line with market consensus.
2. Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Federal Reserve President Hammack voted against and advocated raising interest rates. Among them, Director Cook was previously regarded as a centrist.
3. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said that the schedule of the Federal Open Market Committee will change starting next fall. There will be a meeting in 2027 where there will be neither a rate vote nor a policy statement. There are two FOMC meetings expected in 2028 without interest rate votes.
4. The Federal Reserve stated in a statement that U.S. inflation remains high. The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the appropriate policy stance to ensure that inflation returns to the Committee's 2 percent objective in a timely manner.
5. The Federal Reserve's statement said that U.S. economic activity is expanding at a "strong pace," while the previous statement said it was "solid."
6. On inflation, Warsh said: "Inflation is too high. Energy and related prices have risen again in recent weeks, and our job is to ensure that relative price changes in certain areas do not spread to the entire economy."
7. Warsh denied that the U.S. economy was beginning to overheat, but pointed out that a number of factors showed that economic activity was stronger than expected, including solid consumer spending and corporate investment activity.
8. Warsh also talked about financial conditions, a measure of how easy it is for businesses and households to borrow money. He has said in the past that financial conditions are adaptable, but said on Wednesday that they had tightened, but that he was unwilling and unable to call it tightening. Short-term U.S. Treasury yields fell while longer-maturity yields rose after Warsh's comments on financial conditions.
9. Regarding balance sheet recommendations, Warsh said that the recommendations of the balance sheet working group may be released in the first quarter of 2027.
10. Traders still maintain bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December, but have reduced expectations for further interest rate hikes in 2027. The futures market is no longer fully pricing in three more interest rate hikes in this cycle.
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