B · Normal
[CICC: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are not over yet, but there is no need to rush into action] On October 29, a CICC research report pointed out that the Federal Reserve remained on hold in October. Policymakers have a firm stance against inflation, but they also believe that the policy can remain patient. Some hawkish officials have turned to wait-and-see, signaling less urgency in successive interest rate hikes. Since raising interest rates in September, U.S. financial conditions have tightened marginally and the inflation premium has fallen. The Fed can wait for the policy effects to be further manifested. Looking forward, we expect to raise interest rates once more in December, and then continue to wait and see. This round of interest rate hikes is more likely to be a round of mild, gradual adjustments rather than radical tightening. In addition, Warsh announced that starting next year, he will reduce the frequency of interest rate voting, and some meetings will be dedicated to discussing long-term monetary policy strategies. This is also a continuation of his promotion of reforms to the Fed's policy framework since he took office. For the market, the risk of the Fed tightening more than expected has declined in the short term, but will still maintain a tight monetary stance in the medium term.
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