[Expectations of guaranteed coal supply, resumption of coal mine production in Shanxi, and resumption of customs clearance of Mongolian coal are rising, and the tight logic of coking coal supply is beginning to loosen] On September 7, coking coal and coke futures fell significantly today, with the main force of coking coal falling to around 1,615 yuan/ton, and the main force of coke falling to around 2,109 yuan/ton. The rapid adjustment of the market reflects that the market's expectations for the guarantee of coal supply, the resumption of Shanxi coal mine production, and the resumption of customs clearance of Mongolian coal are rising. The tight supply logic that continued to strengthen in the early stage began to loosen, and long funds concentrated on cashing out at high levels, and price fluctuations amplified accordingly. The fifth round of coke's rise is expected to continue, and the sixth round will face stronger resistance. There is a high probability that the futures market will maintain a discount to spot prices, and the willingness of funds to continue to push flat prices or premiums will decrease. Three sets of data need to be observed in the follow-up: whether the daily domestic coking coal production can continue to rebound, whether Ganqimaodu customs clearance can steadily increase, and whether the average daily hot metal can be maintained above 2.35 million tons. (Yide Futures)