B · Normal
[Xiaomao: Raising the forecast for mainland thermal coal prices in 2026 to RMB 830 per ton Short-term preference for Yankuang Energy] On September 11, JPMorgan Chase issued a research report saying that coal prices in mainland China have risen by 14% since the third quarter, and coal stocks have risen by 16% to 22% over the same period. The market expects the coal price environment to be "higher and longer"; the bank believes that short-term coal prices still have upward risks, mainly due to domestic supply constraints and the need to replenish inventories, so it has raised its 2026 thermal coal price forecast from RMB 805 per ton to RMB 830. The bank prefers Yankuang Energy in the short term due to its higher coking coal exposure and favorable contract mix; the bank believes that although the 6% to 7% dividend yield of coal stocks is attractive, the high dividend yield may not be sustainable as supply constraints may be short-term.
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