[Huatai Securities: U.S. CPI exceeds expectations and raising interest rates becomes a "must-have"] On September 12, Huatai Securities Research Report stated that the core inflation in August exceeded expectations month-on-month, making it a "must-have" for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September. The credibility risk of not raising interest rates in September has further increased. After the non-farm payrolls in August exceeded expectations and the rising situation in the Middle East pushed oil prices above 100, August CPI data became the core variable in market pricing of whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September. In August, CPI core inflation increased more than expected month-on-month, and the core service ex-housing sub-item that the Fed focuses on did not show further slowdown potential. At the same time, factors such as rising oil prices due to low inventories, transmission of AI price increases downstream, and a new round of partial tariffs may all disrupt the process of U.S. inflation falling. Looking forward, CPI data may push the neutral voting committee represented by Waller to turn hawkish in September FOMC, and the resistance within the Fed to raising interest rates in September will decrease; August data also "clears" obstacles for raising interest rates. If Warsh cannot fulfill his hawkish promise at the August Jackson Hole meeting in September, the credibility of the Fed will be greater challenged, and long-term U.S. bond interest rates will be more difficult to control.