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All A·Important B·Normal #货币政策动向 ✕
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October 10th: The Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage on Friday was US$300 million.
#Futures Market Intelligence#US Macro Express#Federal Reserve News#Monetary Policy Trends10-10 01:16
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On October 9th, the Federal Reserve's Mussallem stated that further tightening of monetary policy is needed to bring inflation back to the target.
#Futures Market Intelligence#US Macro Express#Federal Reserve News#Monetary Policy Trends10-09 01:46
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[European Central Bank President Lagarde: The European Central Bank has the tools to respond to market fluctuations that lack legitimate reasons] On October 9, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told the finance ministers of the euro zone countries that the ECB has the tools to stabilize financial markets if necessary. Asked about sovereign bond spreads at a closed-door meeting in Luxembourg, Lagarde reiterated the ECB's stance that the institution is keeping a close eye on whether financial markets are functioning well, people familiar with the matter said. Lagarde added that the ECB has the tools to respond to market dynamics that threaten the smooth transmission of monetary policy, lack justification and are disorderly, but they must meet clear applicable conditions.
#Futures Market Intelligence#Monetary Policy Trends#European Central Bank News#Forex futures10-09 01:38
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On October 8th, Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that the dot plot may reflect an interest rate increase in early 2027 and a rate cut later.
#US Macro Express#Monetary Policy Trends#Federal Reserve News10-08 16:38
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On October 8th, Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that further interest rate increases are still needed, but there is "flexibility" in the pace of interest rate increases.
#Federal Reserve News#Monetary Policy Trends10-08 16:31
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On October 7, European Central Bank Governing Council member Dolenc said that the current interest rate level leaves "flexible space" for subsequent decisions.
#Monetary Policy Trends#European Central Bank News10-07 17:29
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On October 7, traders said that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars in the foreign exchange market to support the rupee.
#Forex futures#Monetary Policy Trends10-07 15:37
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October 7 (Xinhua): The Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage was US$414 million on Tuesday, compared with US$1.004 billion in the previous trading day.
#Futures Market Intelligence#US Macro Express#Federal Reserve News#Monetary Policy Trends10-07 01:16
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On October 1, the Bank of Japan meeting minutes confirmed that the policy focus is to prevent inflation from exceeding the target.
#Monetary Policy Trends10-01 10:00
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[Confidence of Japan’s large manufacturers rose to the highest level since 2018, which is expected to support the central bank’s continued interest rate hikes] On October 1, Japan’s large manufacturers’ confidence rose to its highest level in more than eight years, providing support for the Bank of Japan to continue to raise interest rates. The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey released on Thursday showed that the large-scale manufacturing confidence index rose to 24 from 22 in September, improving for the sixth consecutive quarter. The confidence index for large non-manufacturers fell slightly from 37 to 35. A positive index means that more companies think business conditions are "good" than "poor." The latest Tankan survey shows that Japanese companies continue to show resilience, which may further strengthen market expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates again this year.
#Economic data and interpretation#Monetary Policy Trends10-01 08:21
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On October 1, a summary of the Bank of Japan’s opinions in September showed that one member said that it is appropriate to continue to raise interest rates based on the development of the economy, prices, and financial conditions; one member said that there is no need to rush to raise interest rates, but policies must be appropriately guided because potential inflation may soon reach 2%.
#Monetary Policy Trends10-01 07:57
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[The release of the U.S. August PCE tonight may trigger a repricing of interest rate expectations] On September 30, at 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the U.S. August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report will be released. According to Dow Jones consensus forecasts, the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) and core PCE, which excludes food and energy costs, are both expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month in August. On a year-over-year basis, overall PCE is expected to rise 3.7%, while core PCE is expected to rise 3.3%, both unchanged from July and still significantly higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target. The latest PCE data will provide a key reference for judging the state of the U.S. economy before the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting, and may trigger a repricing of U.S. interest rate expectations.
#Federal Reserve News#Monetary Policy Trends#U.S. economy09-30 14:27
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[The central bank uses multiple tools to protect liquidity, and funding is expected to be stable across quarters] On September 29, the end-of-quarter assessment superimposed the demand for capital reserves before the National Day holiday, and the inter-bank market faced a cross-quarter test. The central bank extended the medium-term lending facility (MLF) ahead of schedule, increased the upper limit of overnight reverse repurchase operations, and injected funds with reverse repurchases of different maturities to provide support for a stable cross-season. Many institutions believe that the central bank's increased investment, coupled with the net return of government debt funds and an increase in fiscal expenditures at the end of the quarter, will generally control the funding pressure this week. After the cross-quarter, post-holiday cash flow and other factors are expected to promote loosening of funds, but in late October, we still need to pay attention to the disturbance caused by the superposition of tax payments and the expiration of open market operations. (Shanghai Securities News)
#Futures Market Intelligence#China Central Bank News#Monetary Policy Trends#macro liquidity09-29 06:17
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On September 28, Ramsden, deputy governor of the Bank of England, said that interest rates may have to be raised, and internal calls for raising interest rates are growing.
#Monetary Policy Trends#Global market intelligence09-28 19:16
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[Breaking news in the United States this week is expected to strengthen the Federal Reserve’s case for raising interest rates in October] September 28th, several important economic data to be released this week are expected to further show that the U.S. economy is strengthening, thus providing more basis for the claims of many Federal Reserve officials that interest rates should be further raised. Recent data shows that U.S. retail sales grew in August and business activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than five years in September, raising market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again as soon as October. But the good news about economic growth comes with a price: Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, forcing the central bank to consider raising interest rates again, further putting pressure on households and businesses. Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years. Adding to the tension, the Fed's next interest rate decision will be announced just days before the closely watched midterm elections.
#U.S. economy#Federal Reserve News#Monetary Policy Trends09-28 18:51
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September 28th, Japan's top foreign exchange diplomat Mimura said that as the Bank of Japan embarks on a clear path to raise interest rates, the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States has been narrowing, and it will always pay close attention to how this trend affects market trends.
#Monetary Policy Trends#Global market intelligence#Forex futures09-28 15:58
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On September 28th, HSBC analysts said that the euro is encountering dual resistance from monetary policy and the energy market. Compared with the hawkish signal released by the Federal Reserve in September, the market is uncertain about the European Central Bank's subsequent willingness to raise interest rates.
#Federal Reserve News#Monetary Policy Trends#European Central Bank News#Forex futures09-28 15:27
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["Wolf of Wall Street": Raising interest rates in the AI ​​era is a mistake] September 28th, billionaire investor Bill Ackman, known as the "Wolf of Wall Street", recently stated that in the era of artificial intelligence (AI), tightening monetary policy may prove to be a mistake. Ackman posted on social media platform He believes that the principle of raising interest rates to reduce inflation by suppressing demand may no longer apply. "What if the old model doesn't apply to the current situation and the Fed is wrong? I think the Fed may just be making a mistake," he added. Ackman believes that while higher interest rates would dampen demand in normal times, that may not necessarily be the case in the age of artificial intelligence. He writes: “What if higher interest rates don’t reduce demand and investment because the demand for intelligence and energy is unaffected by higher interest rates, because the return on investment from winning the superintelligence race is nearly infinite, and because the demand for computing will be immeasurable, what if?”
#AI#Federal Reserve News#US Macro Express#Monetary Policy Trends09-28 11:57
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September 24th, Bank of England Braden said that it is crucial for the Bank of England to formulate a plan to exit quantitative easing, which makes it a more credible tool.
#Monetary Policy Trends09-24 21:57
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[Central Bank: We must continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase countercyclical adjustments] On September 24, the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China for the third quarter of 2026 (the 114th in total) regular meeting was held on September 19. The meeting analyzed the domestic and international economic and financial situations and believed that the current external environment is more complex and changeable, with weak world economic growth momentum, frequent geopolitical conflicts and economic and trade frictions, divergent economic performance of major economies, and uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments. China's economy is generally operating stably, with new momentum, improved structure, and new results in high-quality development. However, it still faces problems and challenges such as strong supply and weak demand, structural differentiation, and external shocks. It is necessary to continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increase countercyclical adjustments, better utilize the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of total volume and structure, strengthen the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and promote stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery in prices.
#Futures Market Intelligence#Banking Industry News#China Central Bank News#Monetary Policy Trends09-24 17:21
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On September 24, the Norges Bank stated that it was ready to further raise interest rates if necessary.
#Monetary Policy Trends09-24 16:06
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On September 24, the Norges Bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 4.50%, in line with market expectations.
#Monetary Policy Trends09-24 16:01
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[Citi: The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in October and December and resume interest rate cuts in June 2027] On September 24, Citigroup predicted that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged in October and wait for more data to assess the impact of a 25 basis point increase in policy rates, and then stay on hold again in December. By then, a series of milder inflation data should provide enough evidence that inflation is slowing, supporting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged again. As inflation continues to cool, Citigroup expects the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in June 2027.
#Federal Reserve News#US Macro Express#Monetary Policy Trends09-24 13:41
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[Morningstar: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice in the second half of 2027] September 24th, Morningstar predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in the second half of 2027 and further lower interest rates in 2028, pushing the federal funds rate to a range of 2.50%-2.75% by the end of 2028.
#Federal Reserve News#US Macro Express#Monetary Policy Trends09-24 13:37
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[Japan’s 10-year government bond yields hit a new high since 1996, and the global bond market sell-off swept through Tokyo] September 24th, after Japan ended its Silver Week holiday and the market reopened, Japan’s 10-year government bond yields soared to the highest level since 1996, catching up with the intensifying global bond sell-off. After a three-day market break, the yield on that year rose 10 basis points to 3.075% on Thursday. Treasury bond yields of all maturities also rose across the board, with the 5-year Treasury bond yield rising 9.5 basis points to 2.37%. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate on Friday and signaled it may tighten monetary policy further, but traders were disappointed by the lack of clearer guidance on the pace of future action. This leaves Japanese government bond yields exposed to both expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and the repricing of global long-term borrowing costs. The sell-off was triggered by investors demanding higher compensation for holding Japanese government bonds amid persistent inflation and fiscal concerns.
#Futures Market Intelligence#nonferrous metals#Monetary Policy Trends#Global market intelligence09-24 12:46
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[Euro fell to nearly two-month low, options traders increase bearish bets] On September 23, the euro fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in nearly two months. Options traders have increased bets on further weakness in the euro after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. The euro was headed for a third consecutive session of losses, falling as much as 0.4% to $1.1409. Options market indicators show that investor sentiment is becoming increasingly bearish, with bets on a weaker euro before the end of the year approaching their highest level since mid-August. The divergent trade between European and American monetary policy that supported the euro for much of the summer is weakening as markets further price in expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten policy.
#Monetary Policy Trends#Federal Reserve News#Forex futures#options09-23 20:08
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September 23rd, Bank of America expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in November 2026 and February 2027.
#Monetary Policy Trends#Brokerage strategy09-23 18:45
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[The Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points before June next year? The options market has begun to hedge against insufficient interest rate hikes] September 23rd, the interest rate swap market currently reflects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by a cumulative 75 basis points by June next year—that is, three 25 basis point interest rate hikes. The latest trading data in the options market shows that some traders are preparing for the possibility that the Fed's final rate hike may be less than what the market is currently pricing in.
#US Macro Express#Federal Reserve News#options#Monetary Policy Trends09-23 16:46
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On September 22, the Hungarian central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 5.50%, in line with market expectations.
#Monetary Policy Trends09-22 20:01
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September 22 (Xinhua) Julius Baer Group economists pointed out that unless the Bank of Japan tightens monetary policy faster than the Federal Reserve, the 275 basis points interest rate differential between the United States and Japan will continue to support the Japanese yen financing carry trade.
#Federal Reserve News#Monetary Policy Trends09-22 15:40