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[Japan Meteorological Agency says the El Niño phenomenon has increased to the strongest on record] On October 9, the Japan Meteorological Agency said that the El Niño phenomenon that is disrupting weather in South America and Asia has strengthened to the strongest level on record, which may lead to widespread economic disruption, and this impact may last long after the climate phenomenon subsides. The Japan Meteorological Agency predicts that there is a 100% chance that El Niño will continue throughout the northern hemisphere winter, which is consistent with the outlook of the U.S. Climate Prediction Center. The center believes that this disruptive weather phenomenon will definitely continue from January to March next year.
#global climate change#Agricultural products futures#agricultural planting10-09 16:25
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[World Meteorological Organization: El Niño is expected to peak in December] October 8, local time, the World Meteorological Organization released the "Global Seasonal Climate Update" stating that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are expected to rise to record levels from October to December 2026, reflecting that the El Niño phenomenon is intensifying and is expected to peak in December. This will have consequences for economies, ecosystems and communities around the world, increasing the risk of droughts and floods in different regions. Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, said that the El Niño phenomenon has firmly formed and is rapidly strengthening. It is estimated that the probability of it continuing until February 2027 is close to 100%, and may become one of the strongest El Niño phenomena since at least 1950. The World Meteorological Organization predicts that between October and December, there is a high likelihood that temperatures will be higher than the 1993 to 2009 average over a wide area. (CCTV News)
#ecosystem#global climate change#Agricultural products futures#agricultural planting10-08 17:55
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On September 29, the European Union launched a 215 million euro partnership plan to protect cultural heritage from the effects of climate change.
#climate change#global climate change09-29 21:43
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[El Niño forced Indonesian nickel processing center to cut production, which may affect about 100,000 tons of nickel pig iron production] On September 22, it was reported that the smelter of a major nickel processing center in Indonesia will be forced to cut production due to insufficient water supply for cooling and protecting equipment due to drought caused by El Niño. According to people familiar with the matter, this production reduction may affect approximately 100,000 tons of nickel pig iron production. According to Wood Mackenzie's estimates, the park's annual production capacity is approximately 4.2 million tons, or a monthly production capacity of 350,000 tons. This production cut may help curb the decline in nickel prices. Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange have fallen by about 18% from their highs in early May.
#Non-ferrous Nickel#global climate change09-22 17:04
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[Indian rice production may hit the largest decline in 16 years] September 17th, it is reported that due to insufficient rainfall, India’s rice production is expected to decline for the first time in ten years this year, and the decline may be the largest decline in 16 years. The chairman of the All India Rice Exporters Association said that reduced rainfall will lead to a decline in rice production. India's rice production is expected to decrease by about 10 million tons this year, which is nearly 6.5% lower than last year's record 154 million tons of rice production. The decline is the largest since 2009-2010.
#Agricultural products futures#agricultural planting#global climate change09-17 20:49
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September 17th, the US weather forecast agency CPC stated that El Niño is strengthening, and the possibility of extremely strong events this autumn and winter is more than 90%.
#global climate change#agricultural planting#Agricultural products futures09-17 20:37
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[Consulting firm Verisk said food security risks in Asia have intensified due to El Niño and war] On September 17, consulting firm Verisk said that extreme weather disasters will exacerbate food security risks in Asia and may trigger unrest in fragile countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines. The war in Iran has already disrupted supplies of fuel and fertilizer, both important inputs to the agricultural sector. Now extreme weather associated with a strong El Niño poses a further threat to crops in the region. Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, has been plagued by a series of uncontrollable wildfires that have affected harvests. Meanwhile, India, the world's largest rice exporter, relies on monsoon rainfall that is 15% below normal, and Thailand's sugar crop harvest is also set to decline.
#Oil and fat futures#fertilizer#global climate change#Agricultural products futures#agricultural planting#middle east conflict09-17 15:06
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[Goldman Sachs: Triple risks push up agricultural product prices and trade barriers may amplify the impact] September 8th, Goldman Sachs’ latest research report pointed out that although the global agricultural market enters 2026 with relatively sufficient stocks, the triple risks of the Strait of Hormuz, the Black Sea situation and "Super El Niño" are rising at the same time. Coupled with the increasingly inward-looking trade policies of various countries, agricultural product prices face greater risks of tail increases. Goldman Sachs believes that the greater risk comes from the amplified impact of trade protection. The average annual number of new agricultural trade restrictions has roughly doubled since 2020, and export bans and grain hoarding may drain international supply far beyond the actual scale of production reductions. If the market is cut off due to trade barriers, the price impact of the same supply shock in a regional market halved in size may be doubled.
#Shipping futures#Agricultural products futures#agricultural planting#global climate change#Brokerage strategy09-08 17:46
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[United Nations report: Global warming exceeding 1.5°C is inevitable] September 2, the latest report from the United Nations Environment Program shows that global temperature rise exceeding 1.5°C is inevitable, and the most optimistic scenario will also increase by at least 1.8°C. The report points out that by 2100, global temperatures may rise by 3°C compared with pre-industrial levels, which may result in the loss of more than a quarter of glaciers and sea level rise of up to 13 cm.
#global climate change09-02 17:14
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[Indonesia’s largest nickel industrial park may reduce production by as much as 40% as El Niño causes water supply shortages] On September 2, due to the drought caused by the El Niño phenomenon, water supply to the smelters in Indonesia’s largest nickel industrial park has been restricted, and the park may have to cut production by as much as 40%. Potential production cuts could help stem declines in global nickel prices. Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange have fallen by about 17% since their highs in early May.
#Non-ferrous Nickel#global climate change09-02 16:16
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[Ecuador announces that the country has entered a state of red alert in response to El Niño] August 30th. On August 29, local time, the Ecuadorian government announced that the country has entered a state of red alert in response to the possible impact of the El Niño phenomenon. Ecuador's National Risk Management Secretariat issued a resolution that day, calling for strengthening disaster prevention and emergency response, and coordinating all levels of government to improve risk response capabilities. (CCTV News)
#global climate change08-30 09:30